St Kilda v Collingwood

Sun 8 Mar 2026, 7:20pm AEDT (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIPNEW MODEL

COL by 10

COL to win, 62% chance

STK 38%62% COL

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

COL by 12

HIT Actual margin 12 · 2.1 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

St Kilda

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	70+	80+	90+	100+	110+	ACTUAL
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera	HBFR	99	-	-	91%	82%	66%	48%	30%	73
Jack Macrae	INT	96	-	-	89%	77%	61%	42%	25%	53
Jack Sinclair	R	96	-	-	89%	78%	61%	42%	25%	122
Sam Flanders	RR	93	-	-	86%	73%	55%	37%	21%	100
Rowan Marshall	FPL	91	-	-	84%	70%	52%	33%	18%	28
Tom De Koning	RK	86	-	-	78%	62%	43%	26%	13%	84
Mason Wood	INT	84	-	-	74%	57%	38%	22%	11%	48
Callum Wilkie	FB	79	-	-	67%	48%	30%	16%	7%	104
Bradley Hill	CHB	76	-	-	60%	42%	25%	12%	5%	89
Marcus Windhager	WL	75	-	-	60%	41%	25%	12%	5%	116
Jack Silvagni	BPL	72	-	-	53%	35%	19%	9%	4%	77
Mattaes Phillipou	HFFL	71	-	-	52%	34%	19%	9%	3%	66
Hugo Garcia	INT	70	-	-	51%	33%	18%	8%	3%	79
Liam Ryan	INT	65	-	-	40%	24%	12%	5%	2%	35
Mitch Owens	HFFR	65	-	-	41%	24%	12%	5%	2%	62
Cooper Sharman	FF	62	-	-	35%	19%	9%	4%	1%	65
Darcy Wilson	WR	62	-	-	35%	20%	9%	4%	1%	75
Anthony Caminiti	BPR	56	-	-	26%	13%	6%	2%	1%	33
Jack Higgins	FPR	55	-	-	24%	12%	5%	2%	0%	48
Hugh Boxshall	CHF	54	-	-	23%	11%	4%	2%	0%	46
Jack Carroll	INT	53	-	-	22%	10%	4%	1%	0%	78
Max Hall	C	51	-	-	18%	8%	3%	1%	0%	74
Alix Tauru	HBFL	46	-	-	13%	5%	2%	0%	0%	20

Collingwood

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	70+	80+	90+	100+	110+	ACTUAL
Nick Daicos	C	98	-	-	91%	80%	65%	46%	28%	136
Josh Daicos	CHB	96	-	-	89%	78%	61%	43%	26%	141
Darcy Cameron	RK	93	-	-	86%	74%	56%	38%	22%	112
Steele Sidebottom	CHF	90	-	-	82%	67%	49%	31%	17%	49
Dan Houston	HBFL	86	-	-	78%	61%	43%	26%	13%	120
Scott Pendlebury	INT	82	-	-	72%	54%	35%	20%	9%	101
Patrick Lipinski	INT	78	-	-	66%	47%	29%	16%	7%	98
Jack Crisp	RR	76	-	-	61%	43%	26%	13%	6%	97
Ned Long	INT	71	-	-	52%	34%	19%	9%	3%	66
Jordan De Goey	R	70	-	-	50%	32%	17%	8%	3%	79
Wil Parker	WL	70	-	-	50%	32%	17%	8%	3%	33
Brayden Maynard	BPR	68	-	-	47%	29%	15%	7%	2%	119
Lachie Schultz	HFFL	68	-	-	47%	29%	15%	7%	2%	112
Harry Perryman	HBFR	67	-	-	44%	27%	14%	6%	2%	80
Daniel McStay	FPR	63	-	-	37%	21%	10%	4%	1%	32
Jamie Elliott	FF	62	-	-	35%	20%	9%	4%	1%	53
Tim Membrey	FPL	62	-	-	36%	20%	10%	4%	1%	31
Edward Allan	INT	60	-	-	31%	17%	8%	3%	1%	38
Isaac Quaynor	FB	54	-	-	23%	11%	5%	2%	0%	95
Jack Buller	INT	54	-	-	23%	11%	5%	2%	0%	24
Beau McCreery	HFFR	53	-	-	21%	10%	4%	1%	0%	68
Roan Steele	WR	47	-	-	14%	6%	2%	1%	0%	53
Billy Frampton	BPL	45	-	-	12%	5%	2%	0%	0%	79