St Kilda v Collingwood

Sun 8 Mar 2026, 7:20pm AEDT (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIPNEW MODEL

COL by 10

COL to win, 62% chance

STK 38%62% COL

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

COL by 12

HIT Actual margin 12 · 2.1 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

St Kilda

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	1+	2+	3+	4+	5+	ACTUAL
Jack Higgins	FPR	2.0	-	-	89%	49%	10%	0%	0%	1.0
Cooper Sharman	FF	1.6	-	-	78%	30%	4%	0%	0%	2.0
Liam Ryan	INT	1.4	-	-	70%	22%	2%	0%	0%	1.0
Mitch Owens	HFFR	1.1	-	-	56%	13%	1%	0%	0%	2.0
Mason Wood	INT	0.9	-	-	46%	8%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Mattaes Phillipou	HFFL	0.7	-	-	35%	5%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Sam Flanders	RR	0.7	-	-	36%	5%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Anthony Caminiti	BPR	0.6	-	-	30%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Jack Carroll	INT	0.6	-	-	32%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Max Hall	C	0.6	-	-	30%	4%	0%	0%	0%	1.0
Darcy Wilson	WR	0.5	-	-	28%	3%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Jack Silvagni	BPL	0.5	-	-	25%	3%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Bradley Hill	CHB	0.4	-	-	24%	2%	0%	0%	0%	1.0
Hugh Boxshall	CHF	0.4	-	-	22%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Hugo Garcia	INT	0.4	-	-	22%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Rowan Marshall	FPL	0.4	-	-	22%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Tom De Koning	RK	0.4	-	-	22%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera	HBFR	0.3	-	-	20%	2%	0%	0%	0%	1.0
Jack Macrae	INT	0.2	-	-	17%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Jack Sinclair	R	0.2	-	-	16%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Marcus Windhager	WL	0.2	-	-	14%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Alix Tauru	HBFL	0.1	-	-	11%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Callum Wilkie	FB	0.0	-	-	11%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0

Collingwood

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	1+	2+	3+	4+	5+	ACTUAL
Daniel McStay	FPR	1.5	-	-	73%	26%	3%	0%	0%	1.0
Jack Buller	INT	1.3	-	-	64%	18%	2%	0%	0%	0.0
Jamie Elliott	FF	1.3	-	-	66%	19%	2%	0%	0%	1.0
Tim Membrey	FPL	1.3	-	-	67%	20%	2%	0%	0%	0.0
Lachie Schultz	HFFL	1.1	-	-	56%	13%	1%	0%	0%	2.0
Jordan De Goey	R	0.9	-	-	47%	9%	0%	0%	0%	3.0
Nick Daicos	C	0.7	-	-	35%	5%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Beau McCreery	HFFR	0.6	-	-	33%	4%	0%	0%	0%	2.0
Darcy Cameron	RK	0.6	-	-	29%	4%	0%	0%	0%	1.0
Wil Parker	WL	0.6	-	-	30%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Patrick Lipinski	INT	0.4	-	-	20%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Steele Sidebottom	CHF	0.4	-	-	21%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Edward Allan	INT	0.3	-	-	18%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Jack Crisp	RR	0.3	-	-	17%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Ned Long	INT	0.3	-	-	17%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Roan Steele	WR	0.3	-	-	19%	2%	0%	0%	0%	1.0
Dan Houston	HBFL	0.2	-	-	15%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Harry Perryman	HBFR	0.2	-	-	15%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Josh Daicos	CHB	0.2	-	-	14%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Scott Pendlebury	INT	0.2	-	-	16%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Brayden Maynard	BPR	0.1	-	-	12%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Isaac Quaynor	FB	0.1	-	-	12%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Billy Frampton	BPL	0.0	-	-	10%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0