AFL · OPENING ROUND · MCG
St Kilda v Collingwood
Sun 8 Mar 2026, 7:20pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 10
COL to win, 62% chance
STK 38%62% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 12
HIT Actual margin 12 · 2.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Garcia | INT | 6.0 | - | - | 95% | 86% | 70% | 50% | 29% | 6.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 5.9 | - | - | 94% | 84% | 68% | 47% | 27% | 6.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | HFFL | 4.9 | - | - | 85% | 69% | 48% | 28% | 13% | 4.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 4.5 | - | - | 79% | 60% | 39% | 21% | 9% | 1.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FPL | 4.5 | - | - | 80% | 61% | 40% | 21% | 9% | 1.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 4.1 | - | - | 72% | 51% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | CHF | 4.0 | - | - | 71% | 51% | 30% | 14% | 5% | 6.0 |
| Jack Higgins | FPR | 3.6 | - | - | 62% | 41% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 3.6 | - | - | 62% | 41% | 22% | 10% | 3% | 5.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 3.6 | - | - | 64% | 42% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 3.6 | - | - | 63% | 42% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 3.5 | - | - | 60% | 39% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Liam Ryan | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 60% | 39% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 3.4 | - | - | 58% | 37% | 19% | 8% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 3.3 | - | - | 57% | 36% | 18% | 8% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 3.3 | - | - | 57% | 35% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Jack Carroll | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 53% | 32% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 3.0 | - | - | 50% | 30% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 3.0 | - | - | 51% | 30% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 2.9 | - | - | 47% | 27% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Alix Tauru | HBFL | 2.8 | - | - | 45% | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 2.8 | - | - | 45% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Mason Wood | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 45% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ned Long | INT | 5.3 | - | - | 89% | 76% | 56% | 35% | 18% | 9.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | INT | 4.4 | - | - | 78% | 59% | 38% | 20% | 8% | 4.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 4.1 | - | - | 72% | 52% | 31% | 15% | 6% | 4.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | CHF | 4.1 | - | - | 72% | 52% | 31% | 15% | 6% | 1.0 |
| Nick Daicos | C | 4.0 | - | - | 71% | 51% | 30% | 14% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 3.6 | - | - | 63% | 42% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Roan Steele | WR | 3.5 | - | - | 60% | 39% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Jack Crisp | RR | 3.3 | - | - | 57% | 35% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Edward Allan | INT | 3.2 | - | - | 55% | 34% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Harry Perryman | HBFR | 3.2 | - | - | 55% | 34% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Jack Buller | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 52% | 31% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Wil Parker | WL | 3.0 | - | - | 49% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | R | 2.9 | - | - | 47% | 27% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 2.8 | - | - | 46% | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 6.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | FB | 2.8 | - | - | 46% | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 2.8 | - | - | 45% | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 2.7 | - | - | 44% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | INT | 2.7 | - | - | 43% | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 2.4 | - | - | 38% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 2.3 | - | - | 35% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 2.1 | - | - | 32% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPL | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 1.7 | - | - | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |