AFL · OPENING ROUND · SCG
Sydney Swans v Carlton
Thu 5 Mar 2026, 7:30pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 1
SYD to win, 52% chance
SYD 52%48% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 63
HIT Actual margin 63 · 61.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden | RR | 28.3 / 27.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 4.9 / 3.0 | 5.9 / 11.0 | 103 / 126 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 24.5 / 18.0 | 0.1 / 2.0 | 5.4 / 5.0 | 3.8 / 1.0 | 91 / 80 |
| Chad Warner | R | 23.6 / 20.0 | 0.9 / 1.0 | 3.9 / 3.0 | 5.5 / 2.0 | 90 / 76 |
| Isaac Heeney | C | 22.8 / 20.0 | 1.1 / 2.0 | 4.1 / 3.0 | 5.8 / 8.0 | 88 / 98 |
| Callum Mills | HBFL | 22.1 / 25.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.9 / 3.0 | 4.2 / 0.0 | 90 / 67 |
| James Rowbottom | CHF | 20.6 / 20.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 2.4 / 1.0 | 9.2 / 9.0 | 82 / 92 |
| Jake Lloyd | INT | 20.5 / 18.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 6.4 / 6.0 | 3.8 / 0.0 | 84 / 62 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 20.5 / 21.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 5.5 / 3.0 | 3.1 / 1.0 | 83 / 61 |
| Justin McInerney | INT | 20.1 / 31.0 | 0.5 / 3.0 | 5.2 / 5.0 | 4.7 / 3.0 | 80 / 122 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 18.9 / 16.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 5.0 | 3.6 / 3.0 | 63 / 65 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFR | 15.6 / 9.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.4 / 3.0 | 4.8 / 2.0 | 65 / 37 |
| James Jordon | WL | 15.5 / 16.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 3.0 / 4.0 | 4.6 / 2.0 | 63 / 56 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 15.3 / 16.0 | 0.2 / 1.0 | 2.4 / 2.0 | 5.3 / 4.0 | 77 / 106 |
| Tom Papley | HFFR | 15.0 / 9.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 3.7 / 1.0 | 3.5 / 3.0 | 69 / 41 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 14.6 / 14.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.6 / 0.0 | 4.1 / 3.0 | 62 / 44 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 11.6 / 10.0 | 2.3 / 3.0 | 6.3 / 3.0 | 2.9 / 2.0 | 74 / 66 |
| Jai Serong | INT | 11.6 / 19.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.2 / 2.0 | 3.7 / 5.0 | 48 / 72 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 10.8 / 17.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.1 / 4.0 | 2.7 / 0.0 | 52 / 49 |
| Lewis Melican | BPL | 10.0 / 7.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 1.0 | 3.1 / 1.0 | 49 / 27 |
| Logan McDonald | FPR | 9.5 / 11.0 | 1.5 / 1.0 | 4.1 / 2.0 | 2.6 / 2.0 | 56 / 45 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFL | 9.4 / 10.0 | 1.3 / 1.0 | 3.1 / 0.0 | 4.6 / 3.0 | 54 / 40 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 8.7 / 7.0 | 1.4 / 3.0 | 3.5 / 4.0 | 3.4 / 1.0 | 54 / 59 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hewett | RR | 27.6 / 19.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 2.0 | 7.5 / 6.0 | 100 / 75 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 26.3 / 32.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 3.0 | 7.3 / 2.0 | 95 / 99 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 24.4 / 19.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 2.0 | 6.6 / 3.0 | 88 / 57 |
| Cooper Lord | INT | 20.3 / 26.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 3.0 | 7.1 / 0.0 | 74 / 76 |
| Adam Saad | HBFR | 19.2 / 11.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.1 / 1.0 | 3.9 / 0.0 | 77 / 30 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 17.5 / 22.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 4.8 / 7.0 | 3.7 / 1.0 | 68 / 85 |
| Oliver Hollands | WL | 17.0 / 18.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.1 / 4.0 | 5.6 / 2.0 | 74 / 69 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 15.9 / 16.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.4 / 5.0 | 3.4 / 0.0 | 74 / 59 |
| Campbell Chesser | INT | 15.3 / 17.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 5.0 | 4.3 / 2.0 | 61 / 60 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 15.1 / 14.0 | 0.7 / 2.0 | 4.3 / 3.0 | 3.2 / 1.0 | 70 / 60 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 13.1 / 15.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 6.5 / 5.0 | 3.0 / 0.0 | 66 / 58 |
| Harry McKay | CHF | 12.1 / 13.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 5.8 / 5.0 | 4.0 / 0.0 | 69 / 49 |
| Lewis Young | BPR | 11.9 / 11.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 5.0 / 4.0 | 3.8 / 1.0 | 60 / 41 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 11.7 / 16.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 3.2 / 1.0 | 5.0 / 3.0 | 58 / 50 |
| Harry Dean | HBFL | 10.8 / 14.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.3 / 1.0 | 6.0 / 2.0 | 56 / 48 |
| Jagga Smith | FPL | 10.8 / 27.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.3 / 3.0 | 6.0 / 2.0 | 56 / 82 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 10.6 / 18.0 | 0.3 / 3.0 | 2.0 / 3.0 | 4.6 / 2.0 | 63 / 92 |
| Ashton Moir | FPR | 10.5 / 10.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 | 3.3 / 3.0 | 4.0 / 4.0 | 49 / 59 |
| Will Hayward | WR | 10.4 / 11.0 | 1.4 / 1.0 | 3.4 / 3.0 | 4.2 / 3.0 | 55 / 58 |
| Lachie Fogarty | HFFL | 9.4 / 14.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 2.1 / 1.0 | 5.1 / 0.0 | 51 / 36 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 9.2 / 15.0 | 1.2 / 1.0 | 4.5 / 3.0 | 3.6 / 1.0 | 55 / 56 |
| Liam Reidy | INT | 9.0 / 5.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 2.4 / 1.0 | 6.1 / 2.0 | 50 / 40 |