AFL · OPENING ROUND · SCG
Sydney Swans v Carlton
Thu 5 Mar 2026, 7:30pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 1
SYD to win, 52% chance
SYD 52%48% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 63
HIT Actual margin 63 · 61.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden | RR | 28.3 | - | - | 100% | 96% | 76% | 36% | 8% | 27.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 24.5 | - | - | 98% | 84% | 46% | 12% | 1% | 18.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 23.6 | - | - | 97% | 78% | 38% | 8% | 1% | 20.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | C | 22.8 | - | - | 95% | 73% | 32% | 6% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Callum Mills | HBFL | 22.1 | - | - | 94% | 67% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 25.0 |
| James Rowbottom | CHF | 20.6 | - | - | 88% | 55% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | INT | 20.5 | - | - | 88% | 54% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 20.5 | - | - | 88% | 54% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Justin McInerney | INT | 20.1 | - | - | 86% | 51% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 31.0 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 18.9 | - | - | 80% | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFR | 15.6 | - | - | 55% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| James Jordon | WL | 15.5 | - | - | 55% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 15.3 | - | - | 53% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Tom Papley | HFFR | 15.0 | - | - | 50% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 14.6 | - | - | 47% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 11.6 | - | - | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Jai Serong | INT | 11.6 | - | - | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 10.8 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Lewis Melican | BPL | 10.0 | - | - | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Logan McDonald | FPR | 9.5 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFL | 9.4 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 8.7 | - | - | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hewett | RR | 27.6 | - | - | 100% | 95% | 71% | 30% | 6% | 19.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 26.3 | - | - | 99% | 91% | 61% | 21% | 3% | 32.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 24.4 | - | - | 98% | 83% | 45% | 12% | 1% | 19.0 |
| Cooper Lord | INT | 20.3 | - | - | 87% | 52% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 26.0 |
| Adam Saad | HBFR | 19.2 | - | - | 82% | 44% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 17.5 | - | - | 70% | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WL | 17.0 | - | - | 67% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 15.9 | - | - | 58% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Campbell Chesser | INT | 15.3 | - | - | 52% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 15.1 | - | - | 51% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 13.1 | - | - | 34% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Harry McKay | CHF | 12.1 | - | - | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Lewis Young | BPR | 11.9 | - | - | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 11.7 | - | - | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Harry Dean | HBFL | 10.8 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Jagga Smith | FPL | 10.8 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 27.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 10.6 | - | - | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Ashton Moir | FPR | 10.5 | - | - | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Will Hayward | WR | 10.4 | - | - | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Lachie Fogarty | HFFL | 9.4 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 9.2 | - | - | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Liam Reidy | INT | 9.0 | - | - | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |