AFL · OPENING ROUND · SCG
Sydney Swans v Carlton
Thu 5 Mar 2026, 7:30pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 1
SYD to win, 52% chance
SYD 52%48% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 63
HIT Actual margin 63 · 61.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden | RR | 103 | - | - | 94% | 86% | 74% | 56% | 38% | 126 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 91 | - | - | 84% | 70% | 52% | 34% | 18% | 80 |
| Callum Mills | HBFL | 90 | - | - | 83% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 17% | 67 |
| Chad Warner | R | 90 | - | - | 83% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 17% | 76 |
| Isaac Heeney | C | 88 | - | - | 80% | 65% | 46% | 29% | 15% | 98 |
| Jake Lloyd | INT | 84 | - | - | 74% | 57% | 39% | 22% | 11% | 62 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 83 | - | - | 72% | 55% | 36% | 21% | 10% | 61 |
| James Rowbottom | CHF | 82 | - | - | 71% | 53% | 35% | 19% | 9% | 92 |
| Justin McInerney | INT | 80 | - | - | 69% | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 122 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 77 | - | - | 63% | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 106 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 74 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 66 |
| Tom Papley | HFFR | 69 | - | - | 47% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 41 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFR | 65 | - | - | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 37 |
| James Jordon | WL | 63 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 56 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 63 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 65 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 62 | - | - | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 44 |
| Logan McDonald | FPR | 56 | - | - | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 45 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 54 | - | - | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 59 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFL | 54 | - | - | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 40 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 52 | - | - | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 49 |
| Lewis Melican | BPL | 49 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 27 |
| Jai Serong | INT | 48 | - | - | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 72 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hewett | RR | 100 | - | - | 92% | 83% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 75 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 95 | - | - | 88% | 76% | 59% | 40% | 24% | 99 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 88 | - | - | 80% | 64% | 45% | 28% | 14% | 57 |
| Adam Saad | HBFR | 77 | - | - | 62% | 44% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 30 |
| Cooper Lord | INT | 74 | - | - | 58% | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 76 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 74 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 59 |
| Oliver Hollands | WL | 74 | - | - | 57% | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 69 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 70 | - | - | 50% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 60 |
| Harry McKay | CHF | 69 | - | - | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 49 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 68 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 85 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 66 | - | - | 42% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 58 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 63 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 92 |
| Campbell Chesser | INT | 61 | - | - | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 60 |
| Lewis Young | BPR | 60 | - | - | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 41 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 58 | - | - | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 50 |
| Harry Dean | HBFL | 56 | - | - | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 48 |
| Jagga Smith | FPL | 56 | - | - | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 82 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 55 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 56 |
| Will Hayward | WR | 55 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 58 |
| Lachie Fogarty | HFFL | 51 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 36 |
| Liam Reidy | INT | 50 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 40 |
| Ashton Moir | FPR | 49 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 59 |