AFL · OPENING ROUND · SCG
Sydney Swans v Carlton
Thu 5 Mar 2026, 7:30pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 1
SYD to win, 52% chance
SYD 52%48% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 63
HIT Actual margin 63 · 61.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 2.3 | - | - | 95% | 64% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Tom Papley | HFFR | 2.0 | - | - | 89% | 48% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Logan McDonald | FPR | 1.5 | - | - | 73% | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 1.4 | - | - | 71% | 24% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFL | 1.3 | - | - | 65% | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | C | 1.1 | - | - | 53% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 0.9 | - | - | 44% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| James Jordon | WL | 0.6 | - | - | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Errol Gulden | RR | 0.5 | - | - | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Justin McInerney | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 0.4 | - | - | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| James Rowbottom | CHF | 0.3 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 0.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFR | 0.2 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Callum Mills | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jai Serong | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 0.0 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lewis Melican | BPL | 0.0 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry McKay | CHF | 1.8 | - | - | 86% | 42% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Will Hayward | WR | 1.4 | - | - | 69% | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 1.2 | - | - | 61% | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Ashton Moir | FPR | 1.0 | - | - | 51% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 42% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 0.7 | - | - | 33% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 0.7 | - | - | 35% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachie Fogarty | HFFL | 0.6 | - | - | 33% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Harry Dean | HBFL | 0.5 | - | - | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jagga Smith | FPL | 0.5 | - | - | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| George Hewett | RR | 0.4 | - | - | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Liam Reidy | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 0.4 | - | - | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Campbell Chesser | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Cooper Lord | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 0.3 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Lewis Young | BPR | 0.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 0.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WL | 0.1 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Adam Saad | HBFR | 0.0 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 0.0 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |