AFL · OPENING ROUND · SCG
Sydney Swans v Carlton
Thu 5 Mar 2026, 7:30pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 1
SYD to win, 52% chance
SYD 52%48% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 63
HIT Actual margin 63 · 61.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Lloyd | INT | 6.4 | - | - | 87% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 24% | 6.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 6.3 | - | - | 85% | 72% | 55% | 37% | 22% | 3.0 |
| Callum Mills | HBFL | 5.9 | - | - | 80% | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 3.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 5.5 | - | - | 76% | 60% | 42% | 26% | 13% | 3.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 5.4 | - | - | 74% | 58% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5.0 |
| Justin McInerney | INT | 5.2 | - | - | 71% | 54% | 36% | 21% | 10% | 5.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 5.1 | - | - | 68% | 51% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4.0 |
| Errol Gulden | RR | 4.9 | - | - | 66% | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 4.6 | - | - | 61% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 0.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | C | 4.1 | - | - | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Logan McDonald | FPR | 4.1 | - | - | 51% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 3.9 | - | - | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Lewis Melican | BPL | 3.9 | - | - | 49% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Riley Bice | INT | 3.7 | - | - | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 5.0 |
| Tom Papley | HFFR | 3.7 | - | - | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 3.5 | - | - | 41% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFR | 3.4 | - | - | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Jai Serong | INT | 3.2 | - | - | 36% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFL | 3.1 | - | - | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| James Jordon | WL | 3.0 | - | - | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 2.4 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| James Rowbottom | CHF | 2.4 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 6.5 | - | - | 88% | 76% | 60% | 42% | 25% | 5.0 |
| Harry McKay | CHF | 5.8 | - | - | 80% | 65% | 47% | 30% | 16% | 5.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 5.4 | - | - | 73% | 57% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 5.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WL | 5.1 | - | - | 69% | 51% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4.0 |
| Lewis Young | BPR | 5.0 | - | - | 68% | 51% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4.0 |
| Oliver Florent | BPL | 4.8 | - | - | 64% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 7.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 4.5 | - | - | 59% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 3.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 4.3 | - | - | 56% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Adam Saad | HBFR | 4.1 | - | - | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1.0 |
| George Hewett | RR | 3.7 | - | - | 45% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 3.5 | - | - | 41% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Will Hayward | WR | 3.4 | - | - | 39% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Ashton Moir | FPR | 3.3 | - | - | 37% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Harry Dean | HBFL | 3.3 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Jagga Smith | FPL | 3.3 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 3.2 | - | - | 36% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Campbell Chesser | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 33% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Cooper Lord | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 34% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 3.1 | - | - | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Liam Reidy | INT | 2.4 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Lachie Fogarty | HFFL | 2.1 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 2.0 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |