AFL · ROUND 1 · MCG
Carlton v Richmond
Thu 12 Mar 2026, 11:00am AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 28
CAR to win, 80% chance
CAR 80%20% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 4
HIT Actual margin 4 · 23.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hewett | RR | 27.9 / 23.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 3.8 / 5.0 | 5.2 / 4.0 | 104 / 92 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 26.9 / 30.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 4.0 | 3.9 / 5.0 | 92 / 100 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 23.7 / 32.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 2.6 / 1.0 | 5.1 / 3.0 | 90 / 96 |
| Oliver Hollands | WR | 21.3 / 14.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.7 / 3.0 | 3.0 / 1.0 | 80 / 49 |
| Cooper Lord | INT | 20.5 / 20.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 3.1 / 5.0 | 4.3 / 2.0 | 78 / 80 |
| Elijah Hollands | INT | 17.8 / 14.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 4.3 / 3.0 | 2.5 / 1.0 | 69 / 43 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 16.8 / 17.0 | 0.7 / 1.0 | 2.9 / 3.0 | 2.7 / 2.0 | 70 / 69 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFR | 16.7 / 24.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 4.6 / 5.0 | 2.3 / 0.0 | 65 / 75 |
| Harry Dean | BPR | 16.6 / 7.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 0.0 | 2.2 / 0.0 | 68 / 18 |
| Campbell Chesser | WL | 15.3 / 15.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 2.8 / 3.0 | 2.4 / 3.0 | 59 / 61 |
| Harry McKay | CHF | 13.7 / 12.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 5.9 / 7.0 | 2.4 / 1.0 | 76 / 72 |
| Mitch McGovern | HBFL | 13.1 / 15.0 | 0.6 / 2.0 | 4.2 / 6.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 57 / 75 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 12.9 / 9.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 6.3 / 5.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 53 / 43 |
| Matthew Carroll | INT | 12.9 / 19.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 3.3 / 3.0 | 2.0 / 3.0 | 53 / 70 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 12.7 / 14.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 2.0 | 2.4 / 2.0 | 55 / 44 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 12.1 / 8.0 | 1.1 / 0.0 | 3.4 / 2.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 55 / 30 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 12.1 / 13.0 | 0.2 / 1.0 | 2.2 / 0.0 | 2.7 / 3.0 | 70 / 78 |
| Lewis Young | CHB | 10.9 / 10.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.3 / 3.0 | 1.7 / 2.0 | 46 / 40 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 10.8 / 16.0 | 1.3 / 1.0 | 3.7 / 6.0 | 2.3 / 3.0 | 52 / 75 |
| Lachie Fogarty | FPR | 10.4 / 6.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 2.7 / 0.0 | 3.0 / 3.0 | 52 / 24 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 10.2 / 10.0 | 1.1 / 1.0 | 4.4 / 6.0 | 2.0 / 4.0 | 50 / 61 |
| Jagga Smith | FPL | 9.7 / 32.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 2.8 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 5.0 | 45 / 99 |
| Hudson O'Keeffe | INT | 8.6 / 7.0 | 0.8 / 0.0 | 3.4 / 2.0 | 1.9 / 3.0 | 51 / 45 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | RR | 28.6 / 29.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 4.0 | 5.3 / 1.0 | 102 / 81 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 28.1 / 18.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 1.0 | 3.5 / 2.0 | 95 / 53 |
| Jayden Short | HBFR | 22.6 / 29.0 | 0.1 / 1.0 | 5.5 / 10.0 | 1.8 / 0.0 | 87 / 114 |
| Sam Banks | HBFL | 18.3 / 24.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 7.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 65 / 86 |
| Jack Ross | R | 18.1 / 23.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 4.7 / 4.0 | 2.5 / 7.0 | 72 / 93 |
| Sam Grlj | CHB | 16.3 / 19.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 7.0 | 2.2 / 4.0 | 66 / 90 |
| Kane McAuliffe | WR | 16.2 / 16.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 2.8 / 0.0 | 3.2 / 3.0 | 61 / 50 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 15.9 / 21.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 2.9 / 1.0 | 3.6 / 2.0 | 92 / 79 |
| Nathan Broad | BPR | 15.7 / 15.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 6.6 / 7.0 | 1.7 / 2.0 | 63 / 70 |
| James Trezise | INT | 15.4 / 12.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 3.0 | 2.3 / 3.0 | 59 / 51 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WL | 14.3 / 11.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 3.0 | 2.2 / 0.0 | 57 / 38 |
| Sam Lalor | C | 13.9 / 16.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 | 3.3 / 4.0 | 2.8 / 1.0 | 59 / 68 |
| Noah Balta | BPL | 13.5 / 19.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 6.4 / 7.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 62 / 75 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 12.8 / 17.0 | 1.2 / 0.0 | 3.0 / 0.0 | 2.4 / 0.0 | 58 / 42 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 11.8 / 17.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.6 / 7.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 50 / 68 |
| Steely Green | INT | 11.2 / 12.0 | 0.9 / 2.0 | 3.2 / 4.0 | 2.5 / 2.0 | 53 / 66 |
| Rhyan Mansell | HFFR | 10.9 / 12.0 | 1.3 / 2.0 | 3.1 / 7.0 | 2.7 / 4.0 | 54 / 79 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 10.9 / 12.0 | 2.5 / 2.0 | 4.8 / 6.0 | 1.7 / 4.0 | 67 / 76 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 10.2 / 2.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 0.0 | 2.0 / 0.0 | 47 / 4 |
| Maurice Rioli | CHF | 9.9 / 6.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 2.5 / 1.0 | 2.7 / 4.0 | 47 / 36 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 9.4 / 10.0 | 1.1 / 0.0 | 3.2 / 6.0 | 2.0 / 4.0 | 47 / 66 |
| Josh Gibcus | INT | 8.5 / 9.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 2.9 / 4.0 | 1.8 / 4.0 | 36 / 52 |
| Harry Armstrong | FPR | 8.2 / 6.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 2.8 / 4.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 40 / 34 |