Carlton v Richmond

Thu 12 Mar 2026, 11:00am AEDT (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIPNEW MODEL

CAR by 28

CAR to win, 80% chance

CAR 80%20% RIC

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

CAR by 4

HIT Actual margin 4 · 23.5 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Carlton

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	15+	20+	25+	30+	35+	ACTUAL
George Hewett	RR	27.9	-	-	100%	95%	74%	37%	11%	23.0
Sam Walsh	R	26.9	-	-	100%	93%	67%	30%	8%	30.0
Patrick Cripps	C	23.7	-	-	98%	81%	42%	12%	2%	32.0
Oliver Hollands	WR	21.3	-	-	94%	64%	24%	4%	0%	14.0
Cooper Lord	INT	20.5	-	-	91%	57%	18%	3%	0%	20.0
Elijah Hollands	INT	17.8	-	-	78%	33%	6%	0%	0%	14.0
Zac Williams	INT	16.8	-	-	70%	24%	4%	0%	0%	17.0
Oliver Florent	HBFR	16.7	-	-	70%	24%	4%	0%	0%	24.0
Harry Dean	BPR	16.6	-	-	68%	23%	3%	0%	0%	7.0
Campbell Chesser	WL	15.3	-	-	56%	14%	1%	0%	0%	15.0
Harry McKay	CHF	13.7	-	-	39%	6%	0%	0%	0%	12.0
Mitch McGovern	HBFL	13.1	-	-	33%	4%	0%	0%	0%	15.0
Jacob Weitering	FB	12.9	-	-	32%	4%	0%	0%	0%	9.0
Matthew Carroll	INT	12.9	-	-	31%	4%	0%	0%	0%	19.0
Lachlan Cowan	BPL	12.7	-	-	30%	4%	0%	0%	0%	14.0
Ben Ainsworth	HFFR	12.1	-	-	24%	2%	0%	0%	0%	8.0
Marc Pittonet	RK	12.1	-	-	24%	2%	0%	0%	0%	13.0
Lewis Young	CHB	10.9	-	-	14%	1%	0%	0%	0%	10.0
Will Hayward	HFFL	10.8	-	-	14%	1%	0%	0%	0%	16.0
Lachie Fogarty	FPR	10.4	-	-	11%	0%	0%	0%	0%	6.0
Brodie Kemp	FF	10.2	-	-	10%	0%	0%	0%	0%	10.0
Jagga Smith	FPL	9.7	-	-	7%	0%	0%	0%	0%	32.0
Hudson O'Keeffe	INT	8.6	-	-	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	7.0

Richmond

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	15+	20+	25+	30+	35+	ACTUAL
Tim Taranto	RR	28.6	-	-	100%	96%	77%	42%	13%	29.0
Jacob Hopper	INT	28.1	-	-	100%	96%	75%	39%	12%	18.0
Jayden Short	HBFR	22.6	-	-	96%	74%	33%	8%	1%	29.0
Sam Banks	HBFL	18.3	-	-	81%	38%	8%	1%	0%	24.0
Jack Ross	R	18.1	-	-	80%	36%	7%	1%	0%	23.0
Sam Grlj	CHB	16.3	-	-	66%	21%	3%	0%	0%	19.0
Kane McAuliffe	WR	16.2	-	-	65%	20%	3%	0%	0%	16.0
Toby Nankervis	RK	15.9	-	-	62%	18%	2%	0%	0%	21.0
Nathan Broad	BPR	15.7	-	-	60%	17%	2%	0%	0%	15.0
James Trezise	INT	15.4	-	-	57%	15%	2%	0%	0%	12.0
Hugo Ralphsmith	WL	14.3	-	-	46%	9%	1%	0%	0%	11.0
Sam Lalor	C	13.9	-	-	42%	7%	0%	0%	0%	16.0
Noah Balta	BPL	13.5	-	-	38%	6%	0%	0%	0%	19.0
Seth Campbell	HFFL	12.8	-	-	30%	4%	0%	0%	0%	17.0
Ben Miller	FB	11.8	-	-	21%	2%	0%	0%	0%	17.0
Steely Green	INT	11.2	-	-	16%	1%	0%	0%	0%	12.0
Rhyan Mansell	HFFR	10.9	-	-	14%	1%	0%	0%	0%	12.0
Tom Lynch	FF	10.9	-	-	14%	1%	0%	0%	0%	12.0
Campbell Gray	INT	10.2	-	-	9%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2.0
Maurice Rioli	CHF	9.9	-	-	8%	0%	0%	0%	0%	6.0
Jonty Faull	FPL	9.4	-	-	6%	0%	0%	0%	0%	10.0
Josh Gibcus	INT	8.5	-	-	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	9.0
Harry Armstrong	FPR	8.2	-	-	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	6.0