AFL · ROUND 1 · MCG
Carlton v Richmond
Thu 12 Mar 2026, 11:00am AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 28
CAR to win, 80% chance
CAR 80%20% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 4
HIT Actual margin 4 · 23.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hewett | RR | 104 | - | - | 94% | 87% | 74% | 57% | 38% | 92 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 92 | - | - | 86% | 72% | 54% | 36% | 20% | 100 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 90 | - | - | 83% | 69% | 51% | 33% | 18% | 96 |
| Oliver Hollands | WR | 80 | - | - | 68% | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 49 |
| Cooper Lord | INT | 78 | - | - | 64% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 80 |
| Harry McKay | CHF | 76 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 72 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 70 | - | - | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 78 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 70 | - | - | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 69 |
| Elijah Hollands | INT | 69 | - | - | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 43 |
| Harry Dean | BPR | 68 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 18 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFR | 65 | - | - | 40% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 75 |
| Campbell Chesser | WL | 59 | - | - | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 61 |
| Mitch McGovern | HBFL | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 75 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 55 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 30 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 55 | - | - | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 44 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 53 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 43 |
| Matthew Carroll | INT | 53 | - | - | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 70 |
| Lachie Fogarty | FPR | 52 | - | - | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 24 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 52 | - | - | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 75 |
| Hudson O'Keeffe | INT | 51 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 45 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 50 | - | - | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 61 |
| Lewis Young | CHB | 46 | - | - | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 40 |
| Jagga Smith | FPL | 45 | - | - | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 99 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | RR | 102 | - | - | 93% | 85% | 71% | 53% | 35% | 81 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 95 | - | - | 88% | 76% | 60% | 41% | 24% | 53 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 92 | - | - | 86% | 72% | 55% | 36% | 20% | 79 |
| Jayden Short | HBFR | 87 | - | - | 79% | 63% | 45% | 27% | 14% | 114 |
| Jack Ross | R | 72 | - | - | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 93 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 67 | - | - | 44% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 76 |
| Sam Grlj | CHB | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 90 |
| Sam Banks | HBFL | 65 | - | - | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 86 |
| Nathan Broad | BPR | 63 | - | - | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 70 |
| Noah Balta | BPL | 62 | - | - | 35% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 75 |
| Kane McAuliffe | WR | 61 | - | - | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 50 |
| James Trezise | INT | 59 | - | - | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 51 |
| Sam Lalor | C | 59 | - | - | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 68 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 58 | - | - | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 42 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WL | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 38 |
| Rhyan Mansell | HFFR | 54 | - | - | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 79 |
| Steely Green | INT | 53 | - | - | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 66 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 50 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 68 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 47 | - | - | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 4 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 47 | - | - | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 66 |
| Maurice Rioli | CHF | 47 | - | - | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 36 |
| Harry Armstrong | FPR | 40 | - | - | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 34 |
| Josh Gibcus | INT | 36 | - | - | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 52 |