AFL · ROUND 1 · MCG
Carlton v Richmond
Thu 12 Mar 2026, 11:00am AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 28
CAR to win, 80% chance
CAR 80%20% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 4
HIT Actual margin 4 · 23.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry McKay | CHF | 2.0 | - | - | 86% | 59% | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 1.3 | - | - | 74% | 39% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 1.1 | - | - | 68% | 32% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 1.1 | - | - | 67% | 30% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPR | 0.9 | - | - | 61% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Hudson O'Keeffe | INT | 0.8 | - | - | 56% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachie Fogarty | FPR | 0.7 | - | - | 51% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | INT | 0.7 | - | - | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 0.7 | - | - | 49% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jagga Smith | FPL | 0.6 | - | - | 46% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | HBFL | 0.6 | - | - | 43% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Elijah Hollands | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| George Hewett | RR | 0.5 | - | - | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 0.5 | - | - | 41% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 0.5 | - | - | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Campbell Chesser | WL | 0.3 | - | - | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Cooper Lord | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 0.2 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFR | 0.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lewis Young | CHB | 0.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WR | 0.1 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Lynch | FF | 2.5 | - | - | 92% | 72% | 47% | 25% | 11% | 2.0 |
| Rhyan Mansell | HFFR | 1.3 | - | - | 71% | 36% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 1.2 | - | - | 71% | 35% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 1.1 | - | - | 68% | 31% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Sam Lalor | C | 1.0 | - | - | 63% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Harry Armstrong | FPR | 0.9 | - | - | 57% | 21% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Grlj | CHB | 0.9 | - | - | 60% | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Steely Green | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 60% | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | CHF | 0.7 | - | - | 51% | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tim Taranto | RR | 0.5 | - | - | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WL | 0.4 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Ross | R | 0.4 | - | - | 36% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | WR | 0.4 | - | - | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Noah Balta | BPL | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 0.3 | - | - | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| James Trezise | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFL | 0.2 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jayden Short | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Gibcus | INT | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |