AFL · ROUND 1 · MCG
Carlton v Richmond
Thu 12 Mar 2026, 11:00am AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 28
CAR to win, 80% chance
CAR 80%20% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 4
HIT Actual margin 4 · 23.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 6.3 | - | - | 87% | 75% | 60% | 44% | 29% | 5.0 |
| Harry McKay | CHF | 5.9 | - | - | 84% | 70% | 54% | 38% | 25% | 7.0 |
| Oliver Hollands | WR | 4.7 | - | - | 68% | 50% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 3.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFR | 4.6 | - | - | 68% | 49% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 5.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 4.4 | - | - | 63% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 6.0 |
| Elijah Hollands | INT | 4.3 | - | - | 62% | 43% | 27% | 15% | 7% | 3.0 |
| Lewis Young | CHB | 4.3 | - | - | 62% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | HBFL | 4.2 | - | - | 60% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 6.0 |
| George Hewett | RR | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 5.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 3.8 | - | - | 52% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 3.7 | - | - | 51% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 4.0 |
| Will Hayward | HFFL | 3.7 | - | - | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 6.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPR | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 0.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 3.4 | - | - | 45% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Hudson O'Keeffe | INT | 3.4 | - | - | 45% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Matthew Carroll | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Cooper Lord | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Zac Williams | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Campbell Chesser | WL | 2.8 | - | - | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Jagga Smith | FPL | 2.8 | - | - | 31% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Lachie Fogarty | FPR | 2.7 | - | - | 28% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 2.6 | - | - | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 2.2 | - | - | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Broad | BPR | 6.6 | - | - | 89% | 78% | 64% | 48% | 34% | 7.0 |
| Noah Balta | BPL | 6.4 | - | - | 88% | 76% | 61% | 45% | 31% | 7.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 5.6 | - | - | 81% | 66% | 49% | 33% | 20% | 7.0 |
| Jayden Short | HBFR | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 64% | 47% | 31% | 19% | 10.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 4.8 | - | - | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 11% | 6.0 |
| Jack Ross | R | 4.7 | - | - | 68% | 50% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 4.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | WL | 3.9 | - | - | 54% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Sam Banks | HBFL | 3.9 | - | - | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 7.0 |
| James Trezise | INT | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Tim Taranto | RR | 3.8 | - | - | 52% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 4.0 |
| Jacob Hopper | INT | 3.7 | - | - | 51% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Sam Grlj | CHB | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 7.0 |
| Sam Lalor | C | 3.3 | - | - | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Jonty Faull | FPL | 3.2 | - | - | 40% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 6.0 |
| Steely Green | INT | 3.2 | - | - | 40% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Campbell Gray | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Rhyan Mansell | HFFR | 3.1 | - | - | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 7.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 3.0 | - | - | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Josh Gibcus | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 2.9 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Harry Armstrong | FPR | 2.8 | - | - | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Kane McAuliffe | WR | 2.8 | - | - | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Maurice Rioli | CHF | 2.5 | - | - | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |