AFL · ROUND 1 · MCG
Collingwood v Adelaide Crows
Sat 14 Mar 2026, 7:35pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 2
COL to win, 53% chance
COL 53%47% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 14
MISS Actual margin 14 · 16.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | C | 31.2 / 33.0 | 0.6 / 2.0 | 4.2 / 6.0 | 4.3 / 1.0 | 108 / 127 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 25.9 / 28.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.4 / 6.0 | 2.7 / 3.0 | 95 / 102 |
| Scott Pendlebury | RR | 23.8 / 16.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 4.0 / 5.0 | 4.2 / 2.0 | 91 / 63 |
| Jack Crisp | HBFR | 21.0 / 24.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 4.1 / 8.0 | 5.4 / 1.0 | 87 / 93 |
| Jordan De Goey | CHF | 19.4 / 12.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 3.3 / 5.0 | 2.9 / 2.0 | 75 / 54 |
| Ned Long | INT | 18.5 / 16.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 2.8 / 1.0 | 5.7 / 8.0 | 78 / 63 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 18.3 / 17.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 4.7 / 7.0 | 3.5 / 2.0 | 74 / 71 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 18.2 / 15.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.9 / 4.0 | 2.1 / 3.0 | 73 / 61 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 17.7 / 32.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 4.3 / 11.0 | 2.1 / 1.0 | 68 / 119 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 16.9 / 20.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 4.9 / 4.0 | 2.6 / 2.0 | 99 / 87 |
| Edward Allan | WL | 16.6 / 8.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 3.0 | 2.4 / 2.0 | 63 / 36 |
| Harry Perryman | R | 16.0 / 17.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.0 / 5.0 | 2.0 / 3.0 | 64 / 72 |
| Isaac Quaynor | FB | 15.9 / 21.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.5 / 8.0 | 2.1 / 2.0 | 63 / 89 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WR | 15.5 / 22.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 4.0 | 2.7 / 5.0 | 64 / 85 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 14.7 / 17.0 | 0.6 / 1.0 | 2.6 / 4.0 | 4.5 / 4.0 | 67 / 75 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 14.6 / 15.0 | 1.2 / 2.0 | 4.7 / 5.0 | 3.8 / 2.0 | 69 / 75 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 13.4 / 12.0 | 0.4 / 2.0 | 3.2 / 1.0 | 2.1 / 2.0 | 52 / 51 |
| Wil Parker | INT | 12.9 / 9.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 0.0 | 2.1 / 0.0 | 52 / 19 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 12.0 / 5.0 | 2.5 / 2.0 | 5.4 / 3.0 | 2.1 / 2.0 | 69 / 44 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 11.1 / 5.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.9 / 1.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 47 / 15 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 10.2 / 10.0 | 1.1 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 5.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 56 / 53 |
| Jack Buller | INT | 9.4 / 8.0 | 1.4 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 53 / 32 |
| Tim Membrey | FPL | 9.4 / 3.0 | 1.6 / 1.0 | 4.3 / 1.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 54 / 23 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 23.1 / 25.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.0 / 11.0 | 3.8 / 0.0 | 88 / 103 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 22.9 / 21.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 4.0 | 6.0 / 6.0 | 96 / 95 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 21.2 / 27.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.6 / 8.0 | 1.8 / 0.0 | 82 / 94 |
| Jake Soligo | R | 20.9 / 14.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 2.7 / 3.0 | 4.0 / 6.0 | 77 / 76 |
| James Peatling | INT | 20.6 / 20.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 2.8 / 3.0 | 4.4 / 2.0 | 80 / 68 |
| Wayne Milera | BPL | 17.9 / 34.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.3 / 6.0 | 2.4 / 1.0 | 69 / 111 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 17.6 / 19.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 2.1 / 4.0 | 4.9 / 7.0 | 70 / 89 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | INT | 16.3 / 26.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 2.9 / 7.0 | 4.0 / 2.0 | 67 / 103 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 16.3 / 2.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 1.0 | 2.2 / 2.0 | 66 / 23 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 15.9 / 13.0 | 1.2 / 1.0 | 3.1 / 4.0 | 3.2 / 0.0 | 67 / 57 |
| Isaac Cumming | WR | 14.8 / 19.0 | 0.2 / 2.0 | 4.0 / 9.0 | 2.2 / 2.0 | 60 / 96 |
| Callum Ah Chee | HFFR | 14.6 / 12.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 5.2 / 4.0 | 1.8 / 0.0 | 65 / 42 |
| Max Michalanney | INT | 13.8 / 16.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.0 / 9.0 | 1.9 / 2.0 | 56 / 78 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 13.7 / 15.0 | 1.9 / 3.0 | 5.2 / 7.0 | 2.3 / 3.0 | 75 / 92 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 13.1 / 19.0 | 1.8 / 0.0 | 4.8 / 6.0 | 1.8 / 0.0 | 66 / 68 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPR | 12.4 / 8.0 | 1.3 / 2.0 | 4.3 / 3.0 | 1.8 / 2.0 | 59 / 46 |
| Josh Rachele | FPL | 11.7 / 24.0 | 1.5 / 1.0 | 3.3 / 6.0 | 2.4 / 3.0 | 60 / 98 |
| Brayden Cook | WL | 11.2 / 19.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 2.1 / 7.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 46 / 84 |
| Nick Murray | HBFL | 10.1 / 13.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 3.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 42 / 47 |
| Hugh Bond | BPR | 9.9 / 13.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 2.6 / 4.0 | 2.7 / 1.0 | 43 / 50 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 8.8 / 13.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 2.6 / 1.0 | 2.2 / 4.0 | 51 / 71 |
| Luke Pedlar | HFFL | 8.5 / 7.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 | 2.6 / 3.0 | 2.3 / 2.0 | 45 / 46 |
| Jordon Butts | FB | 8.2 / 8.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 4.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 38 / 36 |