Collingwood v Adelaide Crows

Sat 14 Mar 2026, 7:35pm AEDT (venue time)

FINAL MISS

OUR TIPNEW MODEL

COL by 2

COL to win, 53% chance

COL 53%47% ADE

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

ADE by 14

MISS Actual margin 14 · 16.1 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Collingwood

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	15+	20+	25+	30+	35+	ACTUAL
Nick Daicos	C	31.2	-	-	100%	99%	89%	61%	27%	33.0
Josh Daicos	CHB	25.9	-	-	99%	90%	59%	23%	5%	28.0
Scott Pendlebury	RR	23.8	-	-	98%	81%	43%	12%	2%	16.0
Jack Crisp	HBFR	21.0	-	-	93%	62%	22%	4%	0%	24.0
Jordan De Goey	CHF	19.4	-	-	87%	47%	12%	2%	0%	12.0
Ned Long	INT	18.5	-	-	82%	39%	9%	1%	0%	16.0
Steele Sidebottom	INT	18.3	-	-	81%	38%	8%	1%	0%	17.0
Brayden Maynard	BPR	18.2	-	-	80%	36%	7%	1%	0%	15.0
Dan Houston	HBFL	17.7	-	-	77%	32%	6%	0%	0%	32.0
Darcy Cameron	RK	16.9	-	-	71%	26%	4%	0%	0%	20.0
Edward Allan	WL	16.6	-	-	68%	23%	3%	0%	0%	8.0
Harry Perryman	R	16.0	-	-	63%	19%	2%	0%	0%	17.0
Isaac Quaynor	FB	15.9	-	-	62%	18%	2%	0%	0%	21.0
Patrick Lipinski	WR	15.5	-	-	58%	15%	2%	0%	0%	22.0
Beau McCreery	HFFR	14.7	-	-	50%	11%	1%	0%	0%	17.0
Lachie Schultz	HFFL	14.6	-	-	49%	10%	1%	0%	0%	15.0
Roan Steele	INT	13.4	-	-	37%	6%	0%	0%	0%	12.0
Wil Parker	INT	12.9	-	-	31%	4%	0%	0%	0%	9.0
Jamie Elliott	FF	12.0	-	-	23%	2%	0%	0%	0%	5.0
Billy Frampton	BPL	11.1	-	-	15%	1%	0%	0%	0%	5.0
Daniel McStay	FPR	10.2	-	-	10%	0%	0%	0%	0%	10.0
Jack Buller	INT	9.4	-	-	6%	0%	0%	0%	0%	8.0
Tim Membrey	FPL	9.4	-	-	6%	0%	0%	0%	0%	3.0

Adelaide Crows

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	15+	20+	25+	30+	35+	ACTUAL
Rory Laird	HBFR	23.1	-	-	97%	77%	37%	9%	1%	25.0
Jordan Dawson	C	22.9	-	-	97%	76%	36%	9%	1%	21.0
Josh Worrell	CHB	21.2	-	-	93%	63%	23%	4%	0%	27.0
Jake Soligo	R	20.9	-	-	93%	61%	21%	4%	0%	14.0
James Peatling	INT	20.6	-	-	92%	58%	19%	3%	0%	20.0
Wayne Milera	BPL	17.9	-	-	79%	34%	7%	1%	0%	34.0
Sam Berry	RR	17.6	-	-	76%	31%	6%	0%	0%	19.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	INT	16.3	-	-	66%	21%	3%	0%	0%	26.0
Toby Murray	INT	16.3	-	-	66%	21%	3%	0%	0%	2.0
Ben Keays	INT	15.9	-	-	62%	18%	2%	0%	0%	13.0
Isaac Cumming	WR	14.8	-	-	52%	12%	1%	0%	0%	19.0
Callum Ah Chee	HFFR	14.6	-	-	49%	10%	1%	0%	0%	12.0
Max Michalanney	INT	13.8	-	-	41%	7%	0%	0%	0%	16.0
Riley Thilthorpe	CHF	13.7	-	-	39%	6%	0%	0%	0%	15.0
Taylor Walker	FF	13.1	-	-	33%	4%	0%	0%	0%	19.0
Darcy Fogarty	FPR	12.4	-	-	26%	3%	0%	0%	0%	8.0
Josh Rachele	FPL	11.7	-	-	20%	2%	0%	0%	0%	24.0
Brayden Cook	WL	11.2	-	-	16%	1%	0%	0%	0%	19.0
Nick Murray	HBFL	10.1	-	-	9%	0%	0%	0%	0%	13.0
Hugh Bond	BPR	9.9	-	-	8%	0%	0%	0%	0%	13.0
Lachlan McAndrew	RK	8.8	-	-	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%	13.0
Luke Pedlar	HFFL	8.5	-	-	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	7.0
Jordon Butts	FB	8.2	-	-	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	8.0