Collingwood v Adelaide Crows

Sat 14 Mar 2026, 7:35pm AEDT (venue time)

FINAL MISS

OUR TIPNEW MODEL

COL by 2

COL to win, 53% chance

COL 53%47% ADE

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

ADE by 14

MISS Actual margin 14 · 16.1 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Collingwood

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	70+	80+	90+	100+	110+	ACTUAL
Nick Daicos	C	108	-	-	96%	91%	81%	66%	47%	127
Darcy Cameron	RK	99	-	-	91%	81%	66%	48%	30%	87
Josh Daicos	CHB	95	-	-	88%	76%	59%	40%	24%	102
Scott Pendlebury	RR	91	-	-	84%	70%	52%	34%	19%	63
Jack Crisp	HBFR	87	-	-	78%	62%	44%	26%	13%	93
Ned Long	INT	78	-	-	66%	47%	29%	16%	7%	63
Jordan De Goey	CHF	75	-	-	58%	40%	23%	12%	5%	54
Steele Sidebottom	INT	74	-	-	57%	38%	22%	11%	4%	71
Brayden Maynard	BPR	73	-	-	56%	37%	21%	10%	4%	61
Jamie Elliott	FF	69	-	-	47%	30%	16%	7%	2%	44
Lachie Schultz	HFFL	69	-	-	48%	30%	16%	7%	3%	75
Dan Houston	HBFL	68	-	-	46%	28%	15%	6%	2%	119
Beau McCreery	HFFR	67	-	-	44%	27%	14%	6%	2%	75
Harry Perryman	R	64	-	-	39%	22%	11%	4%	2%	72
Patrick Lipinski	WR	64	-	-	40%	23%	11%	5%	2%	85
Edward Allan	WL	63	-	-	37%	21%	10%	4%	1%	36
Isaac Quaynor	FB	63	-	-	37%	21%	10%	4%	1%	89
Daniel McStay	FPR	56	-	-	26%	13%	6%	2%	0%	53
Tim Membrey	FPL	54	-	-	22%	10%	4%	1%	0%	23
Jack Buller	INT	53	-	-	21%	10%	4%	1%	0%	32
Roan Steele	INT	52	-	-	20%	10%	4%	1%	0%	51
Wil Parker	INT	52	-	-	19%	9%	3%	1%	0%	19
Billy Frampton	BPL	47	-	-	14%	6%	2%	1%	0%	15

Adelaide Crows

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	70+	80+	90+	100+	110+	ACTUAL
Jordan Dawson	C	96	-	-	89%	77%	60%	42%	25%	95
Rory Laird	HBFR	88	-	-	80%	64%	46%	28%	15%	103
Josh Worrell	CHB	82	-	-	71%	53%	35%	19%	9%	94
James Peatling	INT	80	-	-	67%	49%	31%	17%	7%	68
Jake Soligo	R	77	-	-	63%	44%	27%	14%	6%	76
Riley Thilthorpe	CHF	75	-	-	59%	40%	24%	12%	5%	92
Sam Berry	RR	70	-	-	51%	32%	18%	8%	3%	89
Wayne Milera	BPL	69	-	-	49%	31%	17%	7%	3%	111
Alex Neal-Bullen	INT	67	-	-	44%	27%	14%	6%	2%	103
Ben Keays	INT	67	-	-	45%	28%	14%	6%	2%	57
Taylor Walker	FF	66	-	-	42%	25%	13%	5%	2%	68
Toby Murray	INT	66	-	-	42%	25%	12%	5%	2%	23
Callum Ah Chee	HFFR	65	-	-	40%	24%	12%	5%	2%	42
Isaac Cumming	WR	60	-	-	32%	17%	8%	3%	1%	96
Josh Rachele	FPL	60	-	-	31%	17%	8%	3%	1%	98
Darcy Fogarty	FPR	59	-	-	31%	16%	7%	3%	1%	46
Max Michalanney	INT	56	-	-	26%	13%	6%	2%	0%	78
Lachlan McAndrew	RK	51	-	-	18%	9%	3%	1%	0%	71
Brayden Cook	WL	46	-	-	13%	6%	2%	1%	0%	84
Luke Pedlar	HFFL	45	-	-	12%	5%	2%	0%	0%	46
Hugh Bond	BPR	43	-	-	10%	4%	1%	0%	0%	50
Nick Murray	HBFL	42	-	-	9%	4%	1%	0%	0%	47
Jordon Butts	FB	38	-	-	7%	2%	1%	0%	0%	36