Collingwood v Adelaide Crows

Sat 14 Mar 2026, 7:35pm AEDT (venue time)

FINAL MISS

OUR TIPNEW MODEL

COL by 2

COL to win, 53% chance

COL 53%47% ADE

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

ADE by 14

MISS Actual margin 14 · 16.1 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Collingwood

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	1+	2+	3+	4+	5+	ACTUAL
Jamie Elliott	FF	2.5	-	-	92%	71%	45%	24%	11%	2.0
Tim Membrey	FPL	1.6	-	-	80%	48%	22%	8%	3%	1.0
Jack Buller	INT	1.4	-	-	75%	40%	16%	5%	1%	0.0
Lachie Schultz	HFFL	1.2	-	-	70%	33%	12%	3%	1%	2.0
Daniel McStay	FPR	1.1	-	-	68%	32%	11%	3%	1%	0.0
Jordan De Goey	CHF	0.7	-	-	49%	15%	3%	0%	0%	0.0
Steele Sidebottom	INT	0.7	-	-	52%	17%	4%	1%	0%	0.0
Beau McCreery	HFFR	0.6	-	-	43%	11%	2%	0%	0%	1.0
Nick Daicos	C	0.6	-	-	47%	13%	3%	0%	0%	2.0
Patrick Lipinski	WR	0.6	-	-	45%	12%	2%	0%	0%	0.0
Jack Crisp	HBFR	0.5	-	-	37%	8%	1%	0%	0%	1.0
Ned Long	INT	0.5	-	-	37%	8%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Roan Steele	INT	0.4	-	-	30%	5%	1%	0%	0%	2.0
Dan Houston	HBFL	0.3	-	-	23%	3%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Darcy Cameron	RK	0.3	-	-	23%	3%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Edward Allan	WL	0.3	-	-	27%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Scott Pendlebury	RR	0.2	-	-	22%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Wil Parker	INT	0.2	-	-	16%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Brayden Maynard	BPR	0.1	-	-	7%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Harry Perryman	R	0.1	-	-	8%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Isaac Quaynor	FB	0.1	-	-	8%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Josh Daicos	CHB	0.1	-	-	13%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Billy Frampton	BPL	0.0	-	-	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0

Adelaide Crows

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	1+	2+	3+	4+	5+	ACTUAL
Riley Thilthorpe	CHF	1.9	-	-	85%	56%	29%	12%	4%	3.0
Taylor Walker	FF	1.8	-	-	84%	54%	27%	11%	4%	0.0
Josh Rachele	FPL	1.5	-	-	78%	45%	20%	7%	2%	1.0
Darcy Fogarty	FPR	1.3	-	-	72%	37%	14%	4%	1%	2.0
Ben Keays	INT	1.2	-	-	70%	34%	12%	3%	1%	1.0
Luke Pedlar	HFFL	1.0	-	-	64%	27%	8%	2%	0%	1.0
Toby Murray	INT	0.9	-	-	60%	23%	7%	1%	0%	0.0
Callum Ah Chee	HFFR	0.7	-	-	48%	14%	3%	0%	0%	0.0
James Peatling	INT	0.6	-	-	44%	11%	2%	0%	0%	0.0
Alex Neal-Bullen	INT	0.5	-	-	41%	10%	2%	0%	0%	1.0
Jordan Dawson	C	0.5	-	-	39%	9%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Lachlan McAndrew	RK	0.5	-	-	38%	9%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Brayden Cook	WL	0.4	-	-	32%	6%	1%	0%	0%	1.0
Jake Soligo	R	0.4	-	-	31%	5%	1%	0%	0%	1.0
Isaac Cumming	WR	0.2	-	-	18%	2%	0%	0%	0%	2.0
Sam Berry	RR	0.2	-	-	21%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Max Michalanney	INT	0.1	-	-	6%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Rory Laird	HBFR	0.1	-	-	8%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Wayne Milera	BPL	0.1	-	-	7%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Hugh Bond	BPR	0.0	-	-	5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Jordon Butts	FB	0.0	-	-	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Josh Worrell	CHB	0.0	-	-	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Nick Murray	HBFL	0.0	-	-	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0