AFL · ROUND 1 · MCG
Collingwood v Adelaide Crows
Sat 14 Mar 2026, 7:35pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 2
COL to win, 53% chance
COL 53%47% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 14
MISS Actual margin 14 · 16.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 5.9 | - | - | 84% | 70% | 54% | 38% | 24% | 4.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | FB | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 65% | 48% | 32% | 20% | 8.0 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 5.4 | - | - | 79% | 63% | 46% | 30% | 18% | 3.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 5.4 | - | - | 78% | 62% | 45% | 30% | 18% | 6.0 |
| Harry Perryman | R | 5.0 | - | - | 73% | 55% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 5.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 4.9 | - | - | 72% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 12% | 1.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 4.9 | - | - | 72% | 55% | 37% | 23% | 13% | 4.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 4.7 | - | - | 69% | 51% | 33% | 20% | 10% | 5.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 4.7 | - | - | 69% | 50% | 33% | 20% | 10% | 7.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 4.3 | - | - | 62% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 11.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPL | 4.3 | - | - | 63% | 43% | 27% | 15% | 7% | 1.0 |
| Nick Daicos | C | 4.2 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 6.0 |
| Jack Crisp | HBFR | 4.1 | - | - | 58% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 8.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | RR | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 5.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 5.0 |
| Jack Buller | INT | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Edward Allan | WL | 3.5 | - | - | 47% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Wil Parker | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 0.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | CHF | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 5.0 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 3.2 | - | - | 40% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WR | 3.1 | - | - | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Ned Long | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 31% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 2.6 | - | - | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 5.6 | - | - | 81% | 66% | 49% | 33% | 20% | 8.0 |
| Wayne Milera | BPL | 5.3 | - | - | 77% | 60% | 43% | 28% | 16% | 6.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | HFFR | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 59% | 41% | 26% | 15% | 4.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 60% | 42% | 27% | 16% | 7.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 5.0 | - | - | 74% | 56% | 38% | 24% | 13% | 11.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 4.8 | - | - | 71% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 11% | 6.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPR | 4.3 | - | - | 63% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 7% | 3.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WR | 4.0 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 9.0 |
| Max Michalanney | INT | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 37% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 9.0 |
| Jordon Butts | FB | 3.9 | - | - | 54% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 4.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 4.0 |
| Nick Murray | HBFL | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Josh Rachele | FPL | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 6.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 7.0 |
| James Peatling | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 31% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Jake Soligo | R | 2.7 | - | - | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Hugh Bond | BPR | 2.6 | - | - | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 2.6 | - | - | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | HFFL | 2.6 | - | - | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WL | 2.1 | - | - | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 2.1 | - | - | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |