AFL · ROUND 1 · MCG
Collingwood v Adelaide Crows
Sat 14 Mar 2026, 7:35pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
COL by 2
COL to win, 53% chance
COL 53%47% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 14
MISS Actual margin 14 · 16.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ned Long | INT | 5.7 | - | - | 93% | 82% | 68% | 51% | 35% | 8.0 |
| Jack Crisp | HBFR | 5.4 | - | - | 90% | 78% | 62% | 45% | 29% | 1.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 4.5 | - | - | 82% | 65% | 46% | 29% | 17% | 4.0 |
| Nick Daicos | C | 4.3 | - | - | 80% | 62% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 1.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | RR | 4.2 | - | - | 79% | 60% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 2.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 3.8 | - | - | 72% | 52% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 2.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 68% | 47% | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | CHF | 2.9 | - | - | 56% | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 2.7 | - | - | 50% | 28% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Patrick Lipinski | WR | 2.7 | - | - | 51% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 5.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 2.6 | - | - | 49% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Edward Allan | WL | 2.4 | - | - | 43% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Brayden Maynard | BPR | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | FB | 2.1 | - | - | 36% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Jamie Elliott | FF | 2.1 | - | - | 36% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 36% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Wil Parker | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPR | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Harry Perryman | R | 2.0 | - | - | 34% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Jack Buller | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPL | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 6.0 | - | - | 94% | 85% | 71% | 55% | 39% | 6.0 |
| Sam Berry | RR | 4.9 | - | - | 87% | 72% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 7.0 |
| James Peatling | INT | 4.4 | - | - | 81% | 64% | 45% | 28% | 16% | 2.0 |
| Alex Neal-Bullen | INT | 4.0 | - | - | 77% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 2.0 |
| Jake Soligo | R | 4.0 | - | - | 76% | 57% | 37% | 22% | 11% | 6.0 |
| Rory Laird | HBFR | 3.8 | - | - | 74% | 54% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 0.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 3.2 | - | - | 62% | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 0.0 |
| Hugh Bond | BPR | 2.7 | - | - | 49% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Josh Rachele | FPL | 2.4 | - | - | 44% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Wayne Milera | BPL | 2.4 | - | - | 43% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Luke Pedlar | HFFL | 2.3 | - | - | 42% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 2.3 | - | - | 41% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | WR | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 2.2 | - | - | 38% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Brayden Cook | WL | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Max Michalanney | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | HFFR | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FPR | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Josh Worrell | CHB | 1.8 | - | - | 28% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nick Murray | HBFL | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Taylor Walker | FF | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jordon Butts | FB | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |