AFL · ROUND 1 · MCG
Essendon v Hawthorn
Fri 13 Mar 2026, 7:40pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 28
HAW to win, 80% chance
ESS 20%80% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 62
HIT Actual margin 62 · 34.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jye Caldwell | C | 26.8 / 18.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 3.6 / 3.0 | 6.0 / 7.0 | 103 / 91 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 26.7 / 21.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 2.0 | 4.1 / 4.0 | 94 / 75 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 26.4 / 32.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 3.6 / 5.0 | 4.7 / 2.0 | 100 / 112 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 24.6 / 26.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 6.1 / 7.0 | 1.8 / 2.0 | 91 / 102 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 24.2 / 20.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.5 / 2.0 | 1.9 / 0.0 | 86 / 59 |
| Andrew McGrath | HBFR | 24.0 / 21.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 6.0 | 3.7 / 4.0 | 87 / 82 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 21.6 / 23.0 | 0.5 / 2.0 | 2.9 / 4.0 | 4.2 / 4.0 | 83 / 94 |
| Brayden Fiorini | WR | 19.5 / 20.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 3.6 / 5.0 | 3.5 / 1.0 | 75 / 74 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 18.6 / 12.0 | 0.3 / 2.0 | 5.1 / 4.0 | 2.8 / 2.0 | 72 / 61 |
| Dyson Sharp | INT | 16.6 / 6.0 | 0.9 / 2.0 | 3.6 / 2.0 | 2.2 / 4.0 | 68 / 50 |
| Hussien El Achkar | FPL | 16.6 / 8.0 | 0.9 / 1.0 | 3.6 / 0.0 | 2.2 / 1.0 | 68 / 33 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 16.6 / 15.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 4.0 | 2.2 / 2.0 | 68 / 52 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 15.9 / 10.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.2 / 3.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 67 / 38 |
| Zach Reid | BPR | 15.4 / 10.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.9 / 2.0 | 2.4 / 0.0 | 68 / 23 |
| Zak Johnson | INT | 14.5 / 16.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 3.0 | 2.0 / 0.0 | 55 / 50 |
| Archie Perkins | HFFR | 13.4 / 17.0 | 0.7 / 1.0 | 3.2 / 3.0 | 2.2 / 2.0 | 54 / 66 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 11.4 / 9.0 | 1.2 / 0.0 | 4.2 / 1.0 | 2.1 / 1.0 | 60 / 30 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 11.1 / 12.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.0 / 8.0 | 1.8 / 0.0 | 50 / 53 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 10.8 / 7.0 | 1.4 / 1.0 | 4.2 / 2.0 | 2.1 / 0.0 | 61 / 34 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 10.2 / 12.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 2.0 | 2.1 / 0.0 | 45 / 37 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 10.2 / 9.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 1.0 | 1.9 / 4.0 | 45 / 47 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.1 / 11.0 | 1.4 / 1.0 | 3.7 / 4.0 | 1.9 / 2.0 | 53 / 56 |
| Archer May | INT | 9.2 / 3.0 | 0.8 / 0.0 | 2.6 / 2.0 | 2.7 / 3.0 | 46 / 24 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 22.8 / 22.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 3.2 / 6.0 | 4.2 / 4.0 | 82 / 91 |
| Karl Amon | BPL | 22.8 / 23.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 4.6 / 3.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 85 / 77 |
| Dylan Moore | WL | 20.6 / 24.0 | 0.7 / 1.0 | 4.3 / 7.0 | 3.8 / 2.0 | 83 / 99 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 20.1 / 21.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.0 / 6.0 | 3.7 / 5.0 | 74 / 95 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 20.0 / 26.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 2.6 / 6.0 | 3.9 / 5.0 | 75 / 107 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 19.3 / 23.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 4.8 / 12.0 | 2.4 / 4.0 | 76 / 114 |
| Conor Nash | R | 19.1 / 23.0 | 0.2 / 1.0 | 2.5 / 5.0 | 5.1 / 4.0 | 74 / 86 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 19.1 / 26.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 6.2 / 11.0 | 1.8 / 4.0 | 74 / 120 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 18.8 / 20.0 | 0.9 / 1.0 | 3.3 / 9.0 | 2.4 / 2.0 | 72 / 99 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 18.0 / 12.0 | 0.2 / 1.0 | 3.2 / 5.0 | 2.4 / 1.0 | 63 / 52 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 17.9 / 18.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.1 / 10.0 | 1.8 / 3.0 | 68 / 94 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 16.8 / 21.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.8 / 11.0 | 2.3 / 0.0 | 70 / 85 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | INT | 16.4 / 16.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.1 / 8.0 | 1.7 / 3.0 | 64 / 71 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 16.1 / 16.0 | 0.5 / 2.0 | 4.6 / 8.0 | 2.3 / 4.0 | 65 / 94 |
| Connor Macdonald | FPL | 15.5 / 24.0 | 0.9 / 2.0 | 3.7 / 3.0 | 2.4 / 0.0 | 64 / 84 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 12.6 / 13.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 2.9 / 3.0 | 3.6 / 2.0 | 86 / 65 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 10.8 / 10.0 | 2.7 / 5.0 | 4.9 / 8.0 | 1.8 / 0.0 | 64 / 84 |
| Nick Watson | HFFR | 10.7 / 17.0 | 1.2 / 4.0 | 2.5 / 6.0 | 2.3 / 5.0 | 50 / 111 |
| Mabior Chol | FF | 10.2 / 14.0 | 1.6 / 1.0 | 3.4 / 9.0 | 3.3 / 1.0 | 62 / 75 |
| Sam Butler | HFFL | 10.2 / 9.0 | 0.8 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 7.0 | 2.3 / 0.0 | 48 / 46 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 9.6 / 8.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 5.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 39 / 31 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 8.8 / 11.0 | 1.3 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 6.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 48 / 51 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 8.4 / 12.0 | 0.2 / 2.0 | 2.1 / 3.0 | 2.5 / 1.0 | 58 / 73 |