AFL · ROUND 1 · MCG
Essendon v Hawthorn
Fri 13 Mar 2026, 7:40pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 28
HAW to win, 80% chance
ESS 20%80% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 62
HIT Actual margin 62 · 34.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jye Caldwell | C | 26.8 | - | - | 100% | 93% | 66% | 29% | 7% | 18.0 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 26.7 | - | - | 100% | 92% | 65% | 28% | 7% | 21.0 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 26.4 | - | - | 99% | 92% | 64% | 27% | 6% | 32.0 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 24.6 | - | - | 98% | 85% | 49% | 16% | 3% | 26.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 24.2 | - | - | 98% | 83% | 46% | 14% | 2% | 20.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | HBFR | 24.0 | - | - | 98% | 82% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 21.0 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 21.6 | - | - | 94% | 66% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Brayden Fiorini | WR | 19.5 | - | - | 88% | 49% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 18.6 | - | - | 83% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | INT | 16.6 | - | - | 69% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | FPL | 16.6 | - | - | 69% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 16.6 | - | - | 69% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 15.9 | - | - | 62% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Zach Reid | BPR | 15.4 | - | - | 57% | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Zak Johnson | INT | 14.5 | - | - | 48% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Archie Perkins | HFFR | 13.4 | - | - | 36% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 11.4 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 11.1 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 10.8 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 10.2 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 10.2 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Archer May | INT | 9.2 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 22.8 | - | - | 97% | 75% | 35% | 8% | 1% | 22.0 |
| Karl Amon | BPL | 22.8 | - | - | 97% | 75% | 35% | 8% | 1% | 23.0 |
| Dylan Moore | WL | 20.6 | - | - | 92% | 59% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 20.1 | - | - | 90% | 54% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 20.0 | - | - | 90% | 53% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 26.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 19.3 | - | - | 86% | 47% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Conor Nash | R | 19.1 | - | - | 86% | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 23.0 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 19.1 | - | - | 86% | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 26.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 18.8 | - | - | 84% | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 18.0 | - | - | 79% | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 17.9 | - | - | 79% | 34% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 16.8 | - | - | 70% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | INT | 16.4 | - | - | 67% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 16.1 | - | - | 64% | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | FPL | 15.5 | - | - | 58% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 12.6 | - | - | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 10.8 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Nick Watson | HFFR | 10.7 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Mabior Chol | FF | 10.2 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Sam Butler | HFFL | 10.2 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 9.6 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 8.8 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 8.4 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |