AFL · ROUND 1 · MCG
Essendon v Hawthorn
Fri 13 Mar 2026, 7:40pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 28
HAW to win, 80% chance
ESS 20%80% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 62
HIT Actual margin 62 · 34.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jye Caldwell | C | 103 | - | - | 94% | 87% | 74% | 56% | 38% | 91 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 100 | - | - | 92% | 82% | 68% | 49% | 31% | 112 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 94 | - | - | 87% | 75% | 58% | 39% | 23% | 75 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 91 | - | - | 84% | 70% | 53% | 34% | 19% | 102 |
| Andrew McGrath | HBFR | 87 | - | - | 79% | 63% | 44% | 27% | 14% | 82 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 86 | - | - | 77% | 60% | 42% | 25% | 12% | 59 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 83 | - | - | 73% | 56% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 94 |
| Brayden Fiorini | WR | 75 | - | - | 59% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 74 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 72 | - | - | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 61 |
| Dyson Sharp | INT | 68 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 50 |
| Hussien El Achkar | FPL | 68 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 33 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 68 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 52 |
| Zach Reid | BPR | 68 | - | - | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 23 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 67 | - | - | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 38 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 61 | - | - | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 34 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 60 | - | - | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 30 |
| Zak Johnson | INT | 55 | - | - | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 50 |
| Archie Perkins | HFFR | 54 | - | - | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 66 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 53 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 56 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 50 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 53 |
| Archer May | INT | 46 | - | - | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 24 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 45 | - | - | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 37 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 45 | - | - | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 47 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 86 | - | - | 77% | 61% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 65 |
| Karl Amon | BPL | 85 | - | - | 77% | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 77 |
| Dylan Moore | WL | 83 | - | - | 72% | 55% | 36% | 21% | 10% | 99 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 82 | - | - | 72% | 54% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 91 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 76 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 114 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 75 | - | - | 59% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 107 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 74 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 95 |
| Conor Nash | R | 74 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 86 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 74 | - | - | 58% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 120 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 72 | - | - | 54% | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 99 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 70 | - | - | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 85 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 68 | - | - | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 94 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 65 | - | - | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 94 |
| Connor Macdonald | FPL | 64 | - | - | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 84 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 64 | - | - | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 84 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | INT | 64 | - | - | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 71 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 63 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 52 |
| Mabior Chol | FF | 62 | - | - | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 75 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 58 | - | - | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 73 |
| Nick Watson | HFFR | 50 | - | - | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 111 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 48 | - | - | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 51 |
| Sam Butler | HFFL | 48 | - | - | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 46 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 39 | - | - | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 31 |