AFL · ROUND 1 · MCG
Essendon v Hawthorn
Fri 13 Mar 2026, 7:40pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 28
HAW to win, 80% chance
ESS 20%80% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 62
HIT Actual margin 62 · 34.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 1.4 | - | - | 76% | 42% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 1.4 | - | - | 75% | 40% | 16% | 5% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 1.2 | - | - | 69% | 33% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 61% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | FPL | 0.9 | - | - | 61% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 61% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Archer May | INT | 0.8 | - | - | 54% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Archie Perkins | HFFR | 0.7 | - | - | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 0.5 | - | - | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Brayden Fiorini | WR | 0.4 | - | - | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 0.4 | - | - | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 0.3 | - | - | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 0.3 | - | - | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 0.3 | - | - | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Zak Johnson | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | HBFR | 0.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 0.2 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 0.0 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Zach Reid | BPR | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 2.7 | - | - | 94% | 76% | 52% | 29% | 14% | 5.0 |
| Mabior Chol | FF | 1.6 | - | - | 80% | 48% | 22% | 8% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 1.3 | - | - | 73% | 38% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Nick Watson | HFFR | 1.2 | - | - | 70% | 34% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | FPL | 0.9 | - | - | 60% | 24% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 58% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Sam Butler | HFFL | 0.8 | - | - | 54% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dylan Moore | WL | 0.7 | - | - | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 0.4 | - | - | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 0.2 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Conor Nash | R | 0.2 | - | - | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 0.2 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Karl Amon | BPL | 0.2 | - | - | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 0.2 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 0.2 | - | - | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 0.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | INT | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 0.0 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |