AFL · ROUND 1 · MCG
Essendon v Hawthorn
Fri 13 Mar 2026, 7:40pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 28
HAW to win, 80% chance
ESS 20%80% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 62
HIT Actual margin 62 · 34.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Redman | CHB | 6.1 | - | - | 86% | 73% | 58% | 42% | 28% | 7.0 |
| Zach Reid | BPR | 5.9 | - | - | 84% | 70% | 53% | 37% | 24% | 2.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 64% | 47% | 31% | 19% | 2.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 5.2 | - | - | 76% | 60% | 42% | 27% | 16% | 3.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 5.1 | - | - | 74% | 57% | 39% | 25% | 14% | 4.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 5.0 | - | - | 74% | 56% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 8.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 4.2 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 1.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 4.2 | - | - | 60% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2.0 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 3.8 | - | - | 52% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | HBFR | 3.7 | - | - | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 6.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 3.7 | - | - | 52% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 4.0 |
| Zak Johnson | INT | 3.7 | - | - | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Brayden Fiorini | WR | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 5.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | FPL | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 0.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | C | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 4.0 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 5.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 3.5 | - | - | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Archie Perkins | HFFR | 3.2 | - | - | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 2.9 | - | - | 34% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Archer May | INT | 2.6 | - | - | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Sicily | CHB | 6.2 | - | - | 87% | 75% | 59% | 43% | 29% | 11.0 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | INT | 5.1 | - | - | 75% | 58% | 40% | 26% | 15% | 8.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 5.1 | - | - | 75% | 58% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 10.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 4.9 | - | - | 72% | 54% | 37% | 22% | 12% | 8.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 4.8 | - | - | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 11% | 11.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 4.8 | - | - | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 11% | 12.0 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 4.6 | - | - | 68% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 10% | 8.0 |
| Karl Amon | BPL | 4.6 | - | - | 68% | 50% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 3.0 |
| Dylan Moore | WL | 4.3 | - | - | 63% | 43% | 27% | 15% | 7% | 7.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | FPL | 3.7 | - | - | 51% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 3.7 | - | - | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 5.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 6.0 |
| Mabior Chol | FF | 3.4 | - | - | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 9.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 9.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 3.2 | - | - | 39% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 6.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 3.2 | - | - | 39% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 5.0 |
| Sam Butler | HFFL | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 7.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 3.0 | - | - | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 6.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 2.9 | - | - | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 2.6 | - | - | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Conor Nash | R | 2.5 | - | - | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Nick Watson | HFFR | 2.5 | - | - | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |