AFL · ROUND 1 · MCG
Essendon v Hawthorn
Fri 13 Mar 2026, 7:40pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
HAW by 28
HAW to win, 80% chance
ESS 20%80% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
HAW by 62
HIT Actual margin 62 · 34.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jye Caldwell | C | 6.0 | - | - | 94% | 85% | 71% | 55% | 39% | 7.0 |
| Zach Merrett | R | 4.7 | - | - | 85% | 69% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 2.0 |
| Sam Durham | HFFL | 4.2 | - | - | 79% | 60% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 4.0 |
| Darcy Parish | RR | 4.1 | - | - | 78% | 59% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 4.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | HBFR | 3.7 | - | - | 72% | 51% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4.0 |
| Brayden Fiorini | WR | 3.5 | - | - | 68% | 46% | 28% | 14% | 7% | 1.0 |
| Xavier Duursma | WL | 2.8 | - | - | 53% | 31% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Archer May | INT | 2.7 | - | - | 51% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Zach Reid | BPR | 2.4 | - | - | 42% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Archie Perkins | HFFR | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Hussien El Achkar | FPL | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Jayden Nguyen | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Zak Johnson | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Archie Roberts | HBFL | 1.9 | - | - | 31% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachlan Blakiston | RK | 1.9 | - | - | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 1.9 | - | - | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Ben McKay | FB | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | BPL | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Mason Redman | CHB | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Nash | R | 5.1 | - | - | 88% | 74% | 57% | 40% | 25% | 4.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 4.2 | - | - | 79% | 60% | 41% | 25% | 13% | 4.0 |
| Josh Ward | INT | 3.9 | - | - | 75% | 55% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 5.0 |
| Dylan Moore | WL | 3.8 | - | - | 73% | 52% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 2.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | C | 3.7 | - | - | 72% | 52% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 5.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 3.6 | - | - | 70% | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 2.0 |
| Mabior Chol | FF | 3.3 | - | - | 64% | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 1.0 |
| Ned Reeves | INT | 2.5 | - | - | 45% | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | FPL | 2.4 | - | - | 42% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | INT | 2.4 | - | - | 42% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Jarman Impey | BPR | 2.4 | - | - | 42% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 2.4 | - | - | 43% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | HBFR | 2.3 | - | - | 41% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Nick Watson | HFFR | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Sam Butler | HFFL | 2.3 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Karl Amon | BPL | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| James Sicily | CHB | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFL | 1.8 | - | - | 28% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | CHF | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jack Scrimshaw | INT | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |