AFL · ROUND 1 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Fremantle
Sat 14 Mar 2026, 4:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 6
GEE to win, 58% chance
GEE 58%42% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 3.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 28.0 / 31.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 4.1 / 7.0 | 4.4 / 4.0 | 100 / 130 |
| Max Holmes | R | 27.6 / 32.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 5.0 / 7.0 | 4.0 / 8.0 | 103 / 132 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 22.7 / 25.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 4.3 / 5.0 | 3.5 / 2.0 | 88 / 90 |
| Tom Stewart | HBFL | 20.9 / 27.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 6.2 / 10.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 79 / 107 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 20.7 / 15.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 2.4 / 2.0 | 6.2 / 10.0 | 86 / 83 |
| Zach Guthrie | INT | 17.7 / 14.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.8 / 8.0 | 2.4 / 2.0 | 71 / 68 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 17.5 / 24.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 2.9 / 4.0 | 4.1 / 4.0 | 67 / 94 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 17.2 / 16.0 | 1.2 / 3.0 | 3.8 / 3.0 | 4.3 / 1.0 | 78 / 80 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPR | 17.0 / 4.0 | 1.4 / 1.0 | 4.0 / 2.0 | 2.7 / 0.0 | 74 / 24 |
| Mitchell Edwards | INT | 16.6 / 7.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 0.0 | 2.2 / 2.0 | 68 / 40 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 16.3 / 16.0 | 1.1 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 2.0 | 2.9 / 1.0 | 73 / 41 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 14.2 / 9.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 2.7 / 2.0 | 2.9 / 1.0 | 56 / 36 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 13.7 / 22.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.5 / 9.0 | 1.9 / 2.0 | 56 / 91 |
| Mark Blicavs | RK | 13.7 / 17.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 2.0 | 3.3 / 4.0 | 79 / 69 |
| Mark O'Connor | WL | 13.1 / 8.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.0 / 3.0 | 2.1 / 1.0 | 52 / 36 |
| Jeremy Cameron | FPL | 12.9 / 23.0 | 2.3 / 3.0 | 5.8 / 10.0 | 1.9 / 2.0 | 74 / 123 |
| Brad Close | HFFL | 12.5 / 4.0 | 0.8 / 0.0 | 2.9 / 0.0 | 2.4 / 2.0 | 58 / 18 |
| Jack Martin | HFFR | 12.3 / 11.0 | 0.9 / 1.0 | 4.8 / 6.0 | 2.3 / 2.0 | 60 / 65 |
| Sam De Koning | BPR | 11.8 / 11.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.5 / 5.0 | 1.8 / 4.0 | 50 / 62 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 11.4 / 12.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.7 / 7.0 | 2.2 / 2.0 | 46 / 52 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 11.4 / 13.0 | 0.0 / 1.0 | 5.7 / 7.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 48 / 68 |
| Oisin Mullin | CHB | 10.8 / 11.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 2.6 / 5.0 | 2.7 / 1.0 | 48 / 46 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 8.6 / 9.0 | 1.6 / 5.0 | 3.5 / 5.0 | 2.4 / 1.0 | 52 / 77 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | R | 26.0 / 30.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 1.9 / 5.0 | 4.7 / 1.0 | 92 / 108 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 25.6 / 14.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 2.3 / 2.0 | 5.8 / 4.0 | 94 / 53 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 23.6 / 19.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.2 / 2.0 | 2.4 / 3.0 | 89 / 69 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 21.9 / 16.0 | 0.6 / 1.0 | 3.2 / 2.0 | 4.3 / 4.0 | 85 / 68 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 19.1 / 14.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 2.0 | 3.4 / 6.0 | 72 / 66 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 18.7 / 21.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 2.5 / 4.0 | 3.0 / 0.0 | 67 / 65 |
| Shai Bolton | FPL | 17.2 / 16.0 | 1.1 / 2.0 | 2.4 / 1.0 | 2.9 / 2.0 | 70 / 62 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 15.9 / 27.0 | 0.8 / 1.0 | 2.9 / 2.0 | 3.6 / 8.0 | 74 / 125 |
| Corey Wagner | WL | 15.5 / 13.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 2.7 / 2.0 | 3.9 / 1.0 | 62 / 38 |
| Brandon Walker | INT | 14.3 / 10.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.4 / 0.0 | 2.6 / 1.0 | 55 / 30 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 14.3 / 11.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 3.2 / 2.0 | 2.9 / 3.0 | 51 / 49 |
| Murphy Reid | FPR | 14.0 / 19.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 2.3 / 4.0 | 58 / 78 |
| Karl Worner | BPL | 13.8 / 19.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 6.0 | 2.3 / 2.0 | 55 / 70 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 13.3 / 14.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 2.0 | 1.8 / 2.0 | 53 / 49 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 12.6 / 9.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 2.6 / 1.0 | 3.4 / 4.0 | 57 / 41 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 12.4 / 19.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 2.0 | 2.1 / 1.0 | 50 / 52 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 11.3 / 10.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 2.1 / 2.0 | 2.7 / 1.0 | 68 / 53 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 10.9 / 10.0 | 1.5 / 2.0 | 4.2 / 8.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 60 / 66 |
| Alex Pearce | CHB | 9.9 / 8.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 5.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 43 / 39 |
| Isaiah Dudley | HFFL | 9.3 / 10.0 | 0.8 / 3.0 | 2.1 / 1.0 | 2.1 / 4.0 | 45 / 63 |
| Oscar McDonald | FB | 9.0 / 5.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 2.0 | 1.8 / 2.0 | 43 / 29 |
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 8.7 / 11.0 | 1.6 / 0.0 | 2.9 / 4.0 | 1.9 / 6.0 | 50 / 60 |
| Jye Amiss | INT | 8.4 / 4.0 | 1.4 / 1.0 | 3.1 / 2.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 45 / 26 |