AFL · ROUND 1 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Fremantle
Sat 14 Mar 2026, 4:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 6
GEE to win, 58% chance
GEE 58%42% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 3.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 28.0 | - | - | 100% | 95% | 74% | 38% | 11% | 31.0 |
| Max Holmes | R | 27.6 | - | - | 100% | 94% | 71% | 35% | 10% | 32.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 22.7 | - | - | 96% | 74% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 25.0 |
| Tom Stewart | HBFL | 20.9 | - | - | 93% | 61% | 21% | 4% | 0% | 27.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 20.7 | - | - | 92% | 59% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | INT | 17.7 | - | - | 77% | 32% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 17.5 | - | - | 76% | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 17.2 | - | - | 74% | 28% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPR | 17.0 | - | - | 72% | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | INT | 16.6 | - | - | 69% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 16.3 | - | - | 66% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 14.2 | - | - | 45% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 13.7 | - | - | 40% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | RK | 13.7 | - | - | 40% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | WL | 13.1 | - | - | 34% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | FPL | 12.9 | - | - | 32% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFL | 12.5 | - | - | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Jack Martin | HFFR | 12.3 | - | - | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Sam De Koning | BPR | 11.8 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 11.4 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 11.4 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | CHB | 10.8 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 8.6 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Serong | R | 26.0 | - | - | 99% | 90% | 60% | 24% | 5% | 30.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 25.6 | - | - | 99% | 89% | 57% | 22% | 4% | 14.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 23.6 | - | - | 98% | 80% | 41% | 11% | 2% | 19.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 21.9 | - | - | 95% | 69% | 28% | 6% | 1% | 16.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 19.1 | - | - | 85% | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 18.7 | - | - | 83% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Shai Bolton | FPL | 17.2 | - | - | 74% | 28% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 15.9 | - | - | 63% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 27.0 |
| Corey Wagner | WL | 15.5 | - | - | 58% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Brandon Walker | INT | 14.3 | - | - | 46% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 14.3 | - | - | 46% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Murphy Reid | FPR | 14.0 | - | - | 44% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Karl Worner | BPL | 13.8 | - | - | 40% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 13.3 | - | - | 36% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 12.6 | - | - | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 12.4 | - | - | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 11.3 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 10.9 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Alex Pearce | CHB | 9.9 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | HFFL | 9.3 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | FB | 9.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 8.7 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Jye Amiss | INT | 8.4 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 |