AFL · ROUND 1 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Fremantle
Sat 14 Mar 2026, 4:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 6
GEE to win, 58% chance
GEE 58%42% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 3.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holmes | R | 103 | - | - | 94% | 86% | 73% | 56% | 37% | 132 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 100 | - | - | 92% | 83% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 130 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 88 | - | - | 80% | 64% | 46% | 28% | 14% | 90 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 86 | - | - | 77% | 61% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 83 |
| Mark Blicavs | RK | 79 | - | - | 66% | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 69 |
| Tom Stewart | HBFL | 79 | - | - | 66% | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 107 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 78 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 80 |
| Jeremy Cameron | FPL | 74 | - | - | 58% | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 123 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPR | 74 | - | - | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 24 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 73 | - | - | 56% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 41 |
| Zach Guthrie | INT | 71 | - | - | 51% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 68 |
| Mitchell Edwards | INT | 68 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 40 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 67 | - | - | 44% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 94 |
| Jack Martin | HFFR | 60 | - | - | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 65 |
| Brad Close | HFFL | 58 | - | - | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 18 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 56 | - | - | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 36 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 56 | - | - | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 91 |
| Mark O'Connor | WL | 52 | - | - | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 36 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 52 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 77 |
| Sam De Koning | BPR | 50 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 62 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 48 | - | - | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 68 |
| Oisin Mullin | CHB | 48 | - | - | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 46 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 46 | - | - | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 52 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 94 | - | - | 87% | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 53 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 92 | - | - | 85% | 71% | 53% | 35% | 19% | 108 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 89 | - | - | 81% | 66% | 47% | 29% | 16% | 69 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 85 | - | - | 77% | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 68 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 74 | - | - | 57% | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 125 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 72 | - | - | 54% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 66 |
| Shai Bolton | FPL | 70 | - | - | 49% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 62 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 68 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 53 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 67 | - | - | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 65 |
| Corey Wagner | WL | 62 | - | - | 35% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 38 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 60 | - | - | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 66 |
| Murphy Reid | FPR | 58 | - | - | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 78 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 41 |
| Brandon Walker | INT | 55 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 30 |
| Karl Worner | BPL | 55 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 70 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 53 | - | - | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 49 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 51 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 49 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 50 | - | - | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 52 |
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 50 | - | - | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 60 |
| Isaiah Dudley | HFFL | 45 | - | - | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 63 |
| Jye Amiss | INT | 45 | - | - | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 26 |
| Alex Pearce | CHB | 43 | - | - | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 39 |
| Oscar McDonald | FB | 43 | - | - | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 29 |