AFL · ROUND 1 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Fremantle
Sat 14 Mar 2026, 4:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 6
GEE to win, 58% chance
GEE 58%42% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 3.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Cameron | FPL | 2.3 | - | - | 90% | 66% | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 1.6 | - | - | 80% | 48% | 22% | 8% | 2% | 5.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPR | 1.4 | - | - | 76% | 42% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 1.2 | - | - | 70% | 34% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 1.1 | - | - | 67% | 30% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Jack Martin | HFFR | 0.9 | - | - | 60% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 61% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFL | 0.8 | - | - | 57% | 21% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | RK | 0.5 | - | - | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 0.4 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Max Holmes | R | 0.4 | - | - | 34% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | CHB | 0.2 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 0.2 | - | - | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | WL | 0.1 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam De Koning | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Tom Stewart | HBFL | 0.0 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | INT | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 1.6 | - | - | 80% | 48% | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 1.5 | - | - | 78% | 44% | 19% | 7% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Jye Amiss | INT | 1.4 | - | - | 75% | 40% | 16% | 5% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Shai Bolton | FPL | 1.1 | - | - | 68% | 32% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Murphy Reid | FPR | 1.0 | - | - | 63% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | HFFL | 0.8 | - | - | 57% | 21% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 0.8 | - | - | 54% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 43% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 0.6 | - | - | 45% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 0.3 | - | - | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 0.3 | - | - | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Corey Wagner | WL | 0.2 | - | - | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 0.2 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 0.2 | - | - | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 0.2 | - | - | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Brandon Walker | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | FB | 0.1 | - | - | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Alex Pearce | CHB | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |