AFL · ROUND 1 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Fremantle
Sat 14 Mar 2026, 4:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 6
GEE to win, 58% chance
GEE 58%42% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 3.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Stewart | HBFL | 6.2 | - | - | 86% | 74% | 58% | 42% | 28% | 10.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | FPL | 5.8 | - | - | 83% | 68% | 52% | 36% | 23% | 10.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | INT | 5.8 | - | - | 83% | 69% | 52% | 36% | 23% | 8.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 5.7 | - | - | 82% | 67% | 50% | 34% | 21% | 7.0 |
| Max Holmes | R | 5.0 | - | - | 74% | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7.0 |
| Jack Martin | HFFR | 4.8 | - | - | 70% | 52% | 34% | 21% | 11% | 6.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 4.7 | - | - | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 11% | 7.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 4.5 | - | - | 65% | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 9.0 |
| Sam De Koning | BPR | 4.5 | - | - | 66% | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 5.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 4.3 | - | - | 63% | 44% | 27% | 15% | 7% | 5.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.1 | - | - | 58% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 7.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | WL | 4.0 | - | - | 57% | 37% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPR | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 37% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 3.8 | - | - | 52% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 3.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 0.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 3.5 | - | - | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 5.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | RK | 3.1 | - | - | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFL | 2.9 | - | - | 34% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 2.7 | - | - | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | CHB | 2.6 | - | - | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 2.4 | - | - | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 4.2 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 2.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 4.2 | - | - | 61% | 42% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 8.0 |
| Alex Pearce | CHB | 3.9 | - | - | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 5.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 3.9 | - | - | 54% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | FB | 3.9 | - | - | 54% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 3.7 | - | - | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Karl Worner | BPL | 3.5 | - | - | 47% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 6.0 |
| Brandon Walker | INT | 3.4 | - | - | 44% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 3.2 | - | - | 40% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 3.2 | - | - | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Jye Amiss | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 2.9 | - | - | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 2.9 | - | - | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Corey Wagner | WL | 2.7 | - | - | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 2.6 | - | - | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 2.5 | - | - | 24% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Shai Bolton | FPL | 2.4 | - | - | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 2.3 | - | - | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | HFFL | 2.1 | - | - | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 2.1 | - | - | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Murphy Reid | FPR | 2.0 | - | - | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 1.9 | - | - | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |