AFL · ROUND 1 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Fremantle
Sat 14 Mar 2026, 4:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GEE by 6
GEE to win, 58% chance
GEE 58%42% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 3.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Atkins | RR | 6.2 | - | - | 94% | 86% | 74% | 58% | 42% | 10.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.4 | - | - | 82% | 64% | 45% | 28% | 16% | 4.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | CHF | 4.3 | - | - | 80% | 62% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 1.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | INT | 4.1 | - | - | 78% | 58% | 39% | 23% | 12% | 4.0 |
| Max Holmes | R | 4.0 | - | - | 76% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 8.0 |
| Gryan Miers | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 67% | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | RK | 3.3 | - | - | 64% | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 4.0 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 55% | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WR | 2.9 | - | - | 56% | 34% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | CHB | 2.7 | - | - | 50% | 28% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | FPR | 2.7 | - | - | 51% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Brad Close | HFFL | 2.4 | - | - | 43% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 2.4 | - | - | 44% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | INT | 2.4 | - | - | 42% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Jack Martin | HFFR | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | BPL | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | WL | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Jeremy Cameron | FPL | 1.9 | - | - | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | HBFR | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Tom Stewart | HBFL | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Sam De Koning | BPR | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Jack Henry | FB | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 5.8 | - | - | 93% | 83% | 69% | 52% | 36% | 4.0 |
| Caleb Serong | R | 4.7 | - | - | 84% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 19% | 1.0 |
| Hayden Young | INT | 4.3 | - | - | 80% | 62% | 43% | 27% | 15% | 4.0 |
| Corey Wagner | WL | 3.9 | - | - | 74% | 54% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 1.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RR | 3.6 | - | - | 70% | 48% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 8.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WR | 3.4 | - | - | 66% | 44% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 6.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 3.4 | - | - | 66% | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 4.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 3.0 | - | - | 59% | 36% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 0.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 55% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Shai Bolton | FPL | 2.9 | - | - | 56% | 34% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Sean Darcy | RK | 2.7 | - | - | 50% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Brandon Walker | INT | 2.6 | - | - | 48% | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 2.4 | - | - | 44% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Karl Worner | BPL | 2.3 | - | - | 42% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Murphy Reid | FPR | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | HFFL | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FF | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Patrick Voss | CHF | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Judd McVee | HBFR | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Jye Amiss | INT | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | FB | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Alex Pearce | CHB | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |