AFL · ROUND 1 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v West Coast Eagles
Sun 15 Mar 2026, 5:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GCS by 43
GCS to win, 90% chance
GCS 90%10% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 59
HIT Actual margin 59 · 16.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | RR | 28.5 | - | - | 100% | 96% | 77% | 41% | 13% | 34.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 25.3 | - | - | 99% | 88% | 55% | 20% | 4% | 25.0 |
| Christian Petracca | R | 24.9 | - | - | 99% | 86% | 52% | 18% | 3% | 23.0 |
| Touk Miller | HFFL | 24.0 | - | - | 98% | 82% | 44% | 13% | 2% | 24.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | HBFR | 19.7 | - | - | 88% | 51% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 28.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | CHB | 19.5 | - | - | 88% | 49% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Wil Powell | C | 19.2 | - | - | 86% | 46% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 17.4 | - | - | 75% | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Alex Davies | INT | 17.0 | - | - | 72% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 25.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | FB | 17.0 | - | - | 72% | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | INT | 16.4 | - | - | 67% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | WR | 15.9 | - | - | 62% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 15.4 | - | - | 57% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 13.8 | - | - | 40% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 12.6 | - | - | 29% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Will Graham | HFFR | 12.4 | - | - | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Sam Collins | BPR | 12.2 | - | - | 25% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPR | 11.1 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Caleb Graham | INT | 10.7 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Oscar Adams | INT | 10.3 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Ned Moyle | INT | 9.9 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ben Long | INT | 9.8 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Ethan Read | FPL | 9.8 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 9.1 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Jy Farrar | INT | 8.6 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Jed Walter | INT | 7.9 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCarthy | R | 23.3 | - | - | 97% | 78% | 39% | 10% | 1% | 17.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 22.4 | - | - | 96% | 72% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 17.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 22.3 | - | - | 96% | 72% | 31% | 7% | 1% | 23.0 |
| Liam Duggan | HBFL | 21.5 | - | - | 94% | 66% | 25% | 5% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Tim Kelly | INT | 19.9 | - | - | 89% | 52% | 15% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Jack Graham | HFFL | 19.7 | - | - | 88% | 50% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 19.5 | - | - | 88% | 49% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 18.5 | - | - | 82% | 39% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | INT | 16.1 | - | - | 65% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Jacob Newton | INT | 16.1 | - | - | 65% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | HBFR | 16.1 | - | - | 65% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Milan Murdock | INT | 16.1 | - | - | 65% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Willem Duursma | HFFR | 16.1 | - | - | 65% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Finlay Macrae | INT | 15.7 | - | - | 61% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Brady Hough | CHB | 14.8 | - | - | 51% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Reuben Ginbey | BPL | 14.4 | - | - | 47% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Deven Robertson | WR | 14.2 | - | - | 45% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Hamish Davis | WL | 14.1 | - | - | 44% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Tylar Young | FB | 13.8 | - | - | 41% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Bo Allan | BPR | 11.7 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Jamie Cripps | FPR | 11.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Matt Flynn | RK | 11.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 11.0 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | INT | 10.3 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 7.9 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Archer Reid | FPL | 7.2 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |