AFL · ROUND 1 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v West Coast Eagles
Sun 15 Mar 2026, 5:10pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
GCS by 43
GCS to win, 90% chance
GCS 90%10% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 59
HIT Actual margin 59 · 16.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Davies | INT | 4.9 | - | - | 87% | 72% | 54% | 37% | 22% | 4.0 |
| Touk Miller | HFFL | 4.7 | - | - | 85% | 69% | 51% | 33% | 20% | 2.0 |
| Will Graham | HFFR | 4.0 | - | - | 76% | 56% | 37% | 21% | 11% | 4.0 |
| Noah Anderson | RR | 3.4 | - | - | 66% | 44% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 2.0 |
| Christian Petracca | R | 3.3 | - | - | 65% | 43% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 3.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 3.1 | - | - | 61% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | - |
| Wil Powell | C | 3.0 | - | - | 58% | 36% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 7.0 |
| Jarrod Witts | RK | 2.7 | - | - | 51% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | WR | 2.6 | - | - | 49% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPR | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Zeke Uwland | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Jy Farrar | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachie Weller | WL | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Ned Moyle | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 36% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Daniel Rioli | CHB | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 3.0 |
| John Noble | HBFL | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Ben Long | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Oscar Adams | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Collins | BPR | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | FB | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Caleb Graham | INT | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Ethan Read | FPL | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Jed Walter | INT | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Joel Jeffrey | HBFR | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Ben King | FF | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Graham | HFFL | 6.0 | - | - | 94% | 85% | 71% | 55% | 39% | 8.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 5.7 | - | - | 92% | 82% | 67% | 50% | 34% | 3.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 4.5 | - | - | 82% | 65% | 46% | 29% | 16% | 2.0 |
| Deven Robertson | WR | 3.6 | - | - | 70% | 49% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 12.0 |
| Finlay Macrae | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 63% | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | - |
| Tim Kelly | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 63% | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | - |
| Brady Hough | CHB | 2.9 | - | - | 55% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Hamish Davis | WL | 2.7 | - | - | 50% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Matt Flynn | RK | 2.6 | - | - | 48% | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 2.6 | - | - | 49% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | R | 2.6 | - | - | 49% | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 5.0 |
| Jamie Cripps | FPR | 2.5 | - | - | 46% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Jacob Newton | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | HBFR | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Liam Duggan | HBFL | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Milan Murdock | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Willem Duursma | HFFR | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Reuben Ginbey | BPL | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Bo Allan | BPR | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Ryan Maric | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Archer Reid | FPL | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | INT | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Tylar Young | FB | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |