AFL · ROUND 1 · MCG
Melbourne v St Kilda
Sun 15 Mar 2026, 3:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 6
MEL to win, 57% chance
MEL 57%43% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 13
HIT Actual margin 13 · 7.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Salem | HBFR | 24.3 | - | - | 98% | 84% | 47% | 15% | 2% | 23.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 22.1 | - | - | 95% | 70% | 30% | 6% | 1% | 16.0 |
| Jack Steele | C | 20.8 | - | - | 92% | 60% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 20.2 | - | - | 90% | 55% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 20.0 | - | - | 90% | 53% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Ed Langdon | WR | 18.4 | - | - | 81% | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Harvey Langford | R | 16.7 | - | - | 69% | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 16.6 | - | - | 69% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | RR | 15.5 | - | - | 58% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Kade Chandler | FPR | 14.9 | - | - | 53% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFL | 14.5 | - | - | 48% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Jai Culley | INT | 14.2 | - | - | 45% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPL | 13.8 | - | - | 41% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 13.0 | - | - | 32% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Xavier Lindsay | WL | 13.0 | - | - | 33% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | HFFR | 12.9 | - | - | 32% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 12.7 | - | - | 29% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Daniel Turner | CHB | 12.4 | - | - | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 11.9 | - | - | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 11.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 11.0 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 10.8 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Jake Melksham | INT | 10.6 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 9.1 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Harrison Petty | BPL | 8.7 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 8.5 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair | R | 28.6 | - | - | 100% | 96% | 78% | 42% | 14% | 31.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 27.6 | - | - | 100% | 94% | 71% | 35% | 10% | 18.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 24.2 | - | - | 98% | 83% | 46% | 14% | 2% | 32.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 23.6 | - | - | 98% | 80% | 42% | 12% | 2% | 23.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 20.5 | - | - | 91% | 57% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 28.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 19.6 | - | - | 88% | 49% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 27.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 18.5 | - | - | 82% | 39% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 27.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 17.2 | - | - | 74% | 28% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 26.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | INT | 16.5 | - | - | 68% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Charlie Banfield | INT | 16.3 | - | - | 66% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 15.6 | - | - | 60% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 15.4 | - | - | 58% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Mason Wood | INT | 14.1 | - | - | 44% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 13.7 | - | - | 40% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | CHF | 13.6 | - | - | 39% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Jack Carroll | INT | 13.3 | - | - | 36% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | HFFL | 11.6 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 11.6 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 11.4 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Liam Ryan | FPL | 11.2 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 10.8 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 10.7 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Alix Tauru | HBFL | 10.2 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Alex Dodson | INT | 10.0 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jack Higgins | FPR | 9.9 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Isaac Keeler | INT | 7.8 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |