Melbourne v St Kilda

Sun 15 Mar 2026, 3:15pm AEDT (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIPNEW MODEL

MEL by 6

MEL to win, 57% chance

MEL 57%43% STK

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

MEL by 13

HIT Actual margin 13 · 7.2 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Melbourne

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	70+	80+	90+	100+	110+	ACTUAL
Max Gawn	RK	113	-	-	98%	94%	86%	73%	56%	109
Christian Salem	HBFR	92	-	-	85%	71%	53%	34%	19%	72
Jack Steele	C	88	-	-	80%	64%	46%	28%	15%	85
Trent Rivers	INT	85	-	-	77%	60%	42%	25%	12%	63
Kysaiah Pickett	HFFL	83	-	-	73%	56%	37%	21%	10%	91
Ed Langdon	WR	68	-	-	46%	29%	15%	7%	2%	50
Latrelle Pickett	INT	68	-	-	47%	29%	15%	7%	2%	25
Bayley Fritsch	FPL	66	-	-	43%	26%	13%	6%	2%	65
Harvey Langford	R	64	-	-	38%	22%	11%	4%	2%	29
Kade Chandler	FPR	64	-	-	39%	23%	11%	5%	2%	74
Caleb Windsor	RR	60	-	-	32%	17%	8%	3%	1%	65
Jacob van Rooyen	CHF	60	-	-	32%	17%	8%	3%	1%	103
Jai Culley	INT	58	-	-	29%	15%	7%	2%	1%	54
Jake Melksham	INT	57	-	-	26%	14%	6%	2%	1%	-
Max Heath	INT	56	-	-	26%	13%	6%	2%	1%	-
Changkuoth Jiath	HBFL	55	-	-	24%	12%	5%	2%	0%	77
Koltyn Tholstrup	INT	55	-	-	23%	12%	5%	2%	0%	53
Tom Sparrow	HFFR	55	-	-	24%	12%	5%	2%	0%	27
Daniel Turner	CHB	54	-	-	22%	11%	4%	1%	0%	63
Jake Lever	FB	54	-	-	23%	11%	5%	2%	0%	52
Brody Mihocek	FF	53	-	-	21%	10%	4%	1%	0%	77
Xavier Lindsay	WL	53	-	-	22%	10%	4%	1%	0%	60
Tom McDonald	INT	52	-	-	20%	10%	4%	1%	0%	-
Harrison Petty	BPL	50	-	-	18%	8%	3%	1%	0%	33
Harry Sharp	INT	50	-	-	18%	8%	3%	1%	0%	58
Blake Howes	BPR	48	-	-	15%	6%	2%	1%	0%	43

St Kilda

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	70+	80+	90+	100+	110+	ACTUAL
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera	HBFR	102	-	-	93%	85%	71%	53%	34%	77
Jack Sinclair	R	97	-	-	90%	79%	64%	45%	28%	110
Jack Macrae	INT	91	-	-	84%	69%	51%	33%	18%	77
Marcus Windhager	WL	87	-	-	79%	63%	45%	27%	14%	93
Bradley Hill	CHB	75	-	-	59%	40%	24%	12%	5%	110
Tom De Koning	RK	75	-	-	59%	41%	24%	12%	5%	84
Hugo Garcia	INT	72	-	-	55%	36%	20%	10%	4%	77
Sam Flanders	RR	71	-	-	52%	34%	19%	9%	3%	96
Callum Wilkie	FB	70	-	-	51%	33%	18%	8%	3%	117
Max Hall	C	70	-	-	50%	32%	17%	8%	3%	115
Mason Wood	INT	67	-	-	45%	27%	14%	6%	2%	76
Charlie Banfield	INT	66	-	-	42%	25%	12%	5%	2%	-
Cooper Sharman	FF	61	-	-	34%	19%	9%	3%	1%	25
Darcy Wilson	WR	60	-	-	32%	18%	8%	3%	1%	74
Jack Silvagni	BPL	56	-	-	26%	13%	6%	2%	0%	57
Hugh Boxshall	CHF	55	-	-	25%	12%	5%	2%	0%	65
Mitch Owens	HFFR	55	-	-	24%	12%	5%	2%	0%	88
Liam Ryan	FPL	54	-	-	22%	11%	4%	2%	0%	43
Jack Carroll	INT	53	-	-	21%	10%	4%	1%	0%	58
Jack Higgins	FPR	49	-	-	16%	7%	3%	1%	0%	57
Alex Dodson	INT	48	-	-	15%	7%	2%	1%	0%	-
Mattaes Phillipou	HFFL	48	-	-	15%	7%	2%	1%	0%	33
Liam Stocker	INT	47	-	-	14%	6%	2%	1%	0%	-
Anthony Caminiti	BPR	45	-	-	12%	5%	2%	0%	0%	30
Alix Tauru	HBFL	43	-	-	10%	4%	1%	0%	0%	47
Isaac Keeler	INT	41	-	-	8%	3%	1%	0%	0%	49