AFL · ROUND 1 · MCG
Melbourne v St Kilda
Sun 15 Mar 2026, 3:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 6
MEL to win, 57% chance
MEL 57%43% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 13
HIT Actual margin 13 · 7.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayley Fritsch | FPL | 1.7 | - | - | 82% | 51% | 24% | 10% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 1.7 | - | - | 82% | 51% | 24% | 9% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Jake Melksham | INT | 1.6 | - | - | 81% | 49% | 23% | 8% | 3% | - |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 1.5 | - | - | 77% | 43% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 1.2 | - | - | 69% | 32% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 6.0 |
| Harrison Petty | BPL | 1.1 | - | - | 68% | 31% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 1.1 | - | - | 66% | 30% | 10% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 58% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 61% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 0.6 | - | - | 45% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Harvey Langford | R | 0.6 | - | - | 42% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Kade Chandler | FPR | 0.6 | - | - | 44% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jai Culley | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Jack Steele | C | 0.4 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | HFFR | 0.4 | - | - | 34% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | RR | 0.3 | - | - | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Ed Langdon | WR | 0.3 | - | - | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 0.3 | - | - | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | WL | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFL | 0.1 | - | - | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Christian Salem | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Daniel Turner | CHB | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 0.1 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 1.6 | - | - | 80% | 47% | 21% | 8% | 2% | 0.0 |
| Jack Higgins | FPR | 1.5 | - | - | 78% | 45% | 20% | 7% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 1.3 | - | - | 72% | 36% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Liam Ryan | FPL | 1.2 | - | - | 71% | 36% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Mason Wood | INT | 1.0 | - | - | 64% | 28% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Charlie Banfield | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 60% | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Max Hall | C | 0.9 | - | - | 58% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Isaac Keeler | INT | 0.8 | - | - | 53% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Alex Dodson | INT | 0.7 | - | - | 52% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 0.7 | - | - | 52% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 0.6 | - | - | 42% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | HFFL | 0.5 | - | - | 41% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | CHF | 0.4 | - | - | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Carroll | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 34% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 0.3 | - | - | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 0.2 | - | - | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 0.2 | - | - | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 0.2 | - | - | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Alix Tauru | HBFL | 0.0 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 0.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |