AFL · ROUND 1 · MCG
Melbourne v St Kilda
Sun 15 Mar 2026, 3:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 6
MEL to win, 57% chance
MEL 57%43% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 13
HIT Actual margin 13 · 7.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Salem | HBFR | 6.6 | - | - | 90% | 79% | 64% | 49% | 34% | 2.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 5.8 | - | - | 83% | 69% | 53% | 37% | 23% | 7.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 5.7 | - | - | 82% | 67% | 50% | 34% | 21% | 3.0 |
| Daniel Turner | CHB | 5.6 | - | - | 80% | 65% | 48% | 32% | 20% | 5.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 5.6 | - | - | 81% | 65% | 48% | 33% | 20% | 4.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 5.5 | - | - | 79% | 64% | 46% | 31% | 19% | - |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPL | 4.6 | - | - | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4.0 |
| Ed Langdon | WR | 4.5 | - | - | 66% | 47% | 30% | 17% | 9% | 5.0 |
| Jack Steele | C | 4.2 | - | - | 60% | 41% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 3.0 |
| Jake Melksham | INT | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | - |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 3.7 | - | - | 51% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 7.0 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Harrison Petty | BPL | 3.5 | - | - | 45% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Xavier Lindsay | WL | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 3.4 | - | - | 43% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Max Heath | INT | 3.4 | - | - | 44% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | - |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 3.3 | - | - | 43% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 3.3 | - | - | 43% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 8.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 43% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 2.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFL | 3.2 | - | - | 40% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 8.0 |
| Harvey Langford | R | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Jai Culley | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Kade Chandler | FPR | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 6.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | RR | 3.0 | - | - | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 3.0 | - | - | 35% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | HFFR | 3.0 | - | - | 36% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 7.2 | - | - | 93% | 84% | 72% | 58% | 43% | 10.0 |
| Mason Wood | INT | 5.6 | - | - | 81% | 66% | 48% | 33% | 20% | 6.0 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 5.5 | - | - | 80% | 64% | 47% | 32% | 19% | 8.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 5.1 | - | - | 75% | 58% | 40% | 26% | 15% | 2.0 |
| Jack Sinclair | R | 5.1 | - | - | 75% | 58% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 7.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 5.0 | - | - | 74% | 56% | 38% | 24% | 13% | 8.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 4.9 | - | - | 72% | 54% | 37% | 22% | 12% | 3.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 4.6 | - | - | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 2.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 4.6 | - | - | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 9% | 4.0 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 4.0 | - | - | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 5.0 |
| Alix Tauru | HBFL | 3.8 | - | - | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 4.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | CHF | 3.6 | - | - | 48% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 5.0 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 3.6 | - | - | 49% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | - |
| Charlie Banfield | INT | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | - |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 3.5 | - | - | 47% | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 6.0 |
| Liam Ryan | FPL | 3.5 | - | - | 46% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 3.3 | - | - | 42% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 3.3 | - | - | 43% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 6.0 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 3.2 | - | - | 40% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 6.0 |
| Jack Carroll | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 3.1 | - | - | 38% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 4.0 |
| Alex Dodson | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Isaac Keeler | INT | 2.8 | - | - | 30% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Jack Higgins | FPR | 2.8 | - | - | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | HFFL | 2.5 | - | - | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | INT | 2.3 | - | - | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |