AFL · ROUND 1 · MCG
Melbourne v St Kilda
Sun 15 Mar 2026, 3:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 6
MEL to win, 57% chance
MEL 57%43% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 13
HIT Actual margin 13 · 7.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Salem | HBFR | 24.3 / 23.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 6.6 / 2.0 | 2.1 / 2.0 | 92 / 72 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 22.1 / 16.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.7 / 3.0 | 2.2 / 4.0 | 85 / 63 |
| Jack Steele | C | 20.8 / 21.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 4.2 / 3.0 | 6.0 / 3.0 | 88 / 85 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 20.2 / 22.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 5.6 / 4.0 | 2.3 / 2.0 | 113 / 109 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 20.0 / 19.0 | 1.5 / 1.0 | 3.0 / 2.0 | 3.7 / 7.0 | 83 / 91 |
| Ed Langdon | WR | 18.4 / 10.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 4.5 / 5.0 | 2.7 / 2.0 | 68 / 50 |
| Harvey Langford | R | 16.7 / 9.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 64 / 29 |
| Latrelle Pickett | INT | 16.6 / 7.0 | 0.9 / 1.0 | 3.6 / 2.0 | 2.2 / 0.0 | 68 / 25 |
| Caleb Windsor | RR | 15.5 / 21.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 3.0 / 1.0 | 2.8 / 2.0 | 60 / 65 |
| Kade Chandler | FPR | 14.9 / 15.0 | 0.6 / 1.0 | 3.1 / 6.0 | 3.8 / 2.0 | 64 / 74 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFL | 14.5 / 19.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.2 / 8.0 | 2.2 / 1.0 | 55 / 77 |
| Jai Culley | INT | 14.2 / 11.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 3.1 / 4.0 | 2.8 / 2.0 | 58 / 54 |
| Bayley Fritsch | FPL | 13.8 / 15.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 4.6 / 4.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 66 / 65 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 13.0 / - | 0.0 / - | 5.5 / - | 1.7 / - | 52 / - |
| Xavier Lindsay | WL | 13.0 / 18.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 53 / 60 |
| Tom Sparrow | HFFR | 12.9 / 6.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.0 / 1.0 | 3.7 / 2.0 | 55 / 27 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 12.7 / 12.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.8 / 7.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 54 / 52 |
| Daniel Turner | CHB | 12.4 / 15.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.6 / 5.0 | 1.7 / 2.0 | 54 / 63 |
| Blake Howes | BPR | 11.9 / 15.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 3.3 / 3.0 | 1.8 / 0.0 | 48 / 43 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | CHF | 11.2 / 14.0 | 1.2 / 6.0 | 3.7 / 7.0 | 2.2 / 1.0 | 60 / 103 |
| Harry Sharp | INT | 11.0 / 15.0 | 0.6 / 1.0 | 3.4 / 1.0 | 2.2 / 2.0 | 50 / 58 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 10.8 / 17.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 3.3 / 2.0 | 2.6 / 1.0 | 55 / 53 |
| Jake Melksham | INT | 10.6 / - | 1.6 / - | 3.8 / - | 1.7 / - | 57 / - |
| Brody Mihocek | FF | 9.1 / 14.0 | 1.7 / 3.0 | 3.3 / 8.0 | 2.2 / 0.0 | 53 / 77 |
| Harrison Petty | BPL | 8.7 / 7.0 | 1.1 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 2.0 | 1.8 / 2.0 | 50 / 33 |
| Max Heath | INT | 8.5 / - | 1.1 / - | 3.4 / - | 2.2 / - | 56 / - |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Sinclair | R | 28.6 / 31.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 5.1 / 7.0 | 2.5 / 1.0 | 97 / 110 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HBFR | 27.6 / 18.0 | 0.7 / 3.0 | 4.9 / 3.0 | 2.5 / 0.0 | 102 / 77 |
| Marcus Windhager | WL | 24.2 / 32.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 4.6 / 4.0 | 3.1 / 0.0 | 87 / 93 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 23.6 / 23.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 4.0 | 5.1 / 3.0 | 91 / 77 |
| Sam Flanders | RR | 20.5 / 28.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 4.0 / 5.0 | 2.2 / 3.0 | 71 / 96 |
| Bradley Hill | CHB | 19.6 / 27.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 5.5 / 8.0 | 1.9 / 3.0 | 75 / 110 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 18.5 / 27.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 7.2 / 10.0 | 1.7 / 4.0 | 70 / 117 |
| Max Hall | C | 17.2 / 26.0 | 0.9 / 4.0 | 3.3 / 4.0 | 3.6 / 3.0 | 70 / 115 |
| Hugo Garcia | INT | 16.5 / 19.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 2.3 / 1.0 | 5.2 / 6.0 | 72 / 77 |
| Charlie Banfield | INT | 16.3 / - | 0.9 / - | 3.5 / - | 2.2 / - | 66 / - |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 15.6 / 15.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.3 / 6.0 | 2.3 / 3.0 | 75 / 84 |
| Darcy Wilson | WR | 15.4 / 18.0 | 0.6 / 1.0 | 3.5 / 6.0 | 2.6 / 1.0 | 60 / 74 |
| Mason Wood | INT | 14.1 / 15.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 | 5.6 / 6.0 | 1.8 / 3.0 | 67 / 76 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 13.7 / 15.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.0 / 8.0 | 1.9 / 0.0 | 56 / 57 |
| Hugh Boxshall | CHF | 13.6 / 15.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 5.0 | 3.1 / 2.0 | 55 / 65 |
| Jack Carroll | INT | 13.3 / 15.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.1 / 4.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 53 / 58 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | HFFL | 11.6 / 11.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 2.5 / 1.0 | 2.4 / 2.0 | 48 / 33 |
| Mitch Owens | HFFR | 11.6 / 17.0 | 1.3 / 2.0 | 3.2 / 6.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 55 / 88 |
| Cooper Sharman | FF | 11.4 / 8.0 | 1.6 / 0.0 | 5.1 / 2.0 | 1.8 / 0.0 | 61 / 25 |
| Liam Ryan | FPL | 11.2 / 10.0 | 1.2 / 1.0 | 3.5 / 2.0 | 2.3 / 1.0 | 54 / 43 |
| Liam Stocker | INT | 10.8 / - | 0.0 / - | 3.6 / - | 2.0 / - | 47 / - |
| Anthony Caminiti | BPR | 10.7 / 11.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.6 / 2.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 45 / 30 |
| Alix Tauru | HBFL | 10.2 / 11.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 4.0 | 1.8 / 2.0 | 43 / 47 |
| Alex Dodson | INT | 10.0 / - | 0.7 / - | 2.8 / - | 2.0 / - | 48 / - |
| Jack Higgins | FPR | 9.9 / 9.0 | 1.5 / 2.0 | 2.8 / 5.0 | 2.4 / 1.0 | 49 / 57 |
| Isaac Keeler | INT | 7.8 / 10.0 | 0.8 / 1.0 | 2.8 / 3.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 41 / 49 |