AFL · ROUND 1 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Port Adelaide
Sun 15 Mar 2026, 1:10pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 6
PA to win, 57% chance
NM 43%57% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 46
MISS Actual margin 46 · 51.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 30.5 / 31.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 5.2 / 8.0 | 4.5 / 5.0 | 110 / 118 |
| Colby McKercher | INT | 27.2 / 11.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 4.1 / 0.0 | 1.9 / 2.0 | 94 / 40 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 26.8 / 24.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 6.0 | 4.6 / 5.0 | 97 / 94 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 25.0 / 23.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 7.0 | 2.0 / 0.0 | 87 / 81 |
| Luke Parker | INT | 22.2 / 24.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 3.6 / 8.0 | 4.2 / 2.0 | 87 / 100 |
| Tom Powell | C | 21.4 / 20.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.4 / 3.0 | 4.0 / 1.0 | 81 / 70 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 20.8 / 17.0 | 0.5 / 1.0 | 3.7 / 3.0 | 2.9 / 3.0 | 83 / 71 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 17.0 / 29.0 | 0.2 / 1.0 | 4.7 / 11.0 | 1.9 / 4.0 | 62 / 135 |
| Lachy Dovaston | FPR | 16.6 / 10.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 5.0 | 2.2 / 3.0 | 68 / 56 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFR | 16.6 / 23.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 3.6 / 5.0 | 2.2 / 1.0 | 68 / 77 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 16.4 / 19.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 5.8 / 10.0 | 101 / 96 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 16.3 / 20.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.9 / 9.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 67 / 79 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HBFL | 16.2 / 15.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 4.2 / 5.0 | 2.1 / 4.0 | 64 / 67 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 12.3 / 14.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.4 / 8.0 | 1.8 / 0.0 | 52 / 55 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 12.1 / 11.0 | 2.1 / 2.0 | 4.3 / 4.0 | 2.2 / 3.0 | 66 / 71 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 11.8 / - | 0.5 / - | 2.8 / - | 2.0 / - | 47 / - |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 11.6 / 18.0 | 0.1 / 1.0 | 5.0 / 11.0 | 1.7 / 2.0 | 51 / 94 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 11.1 / 7.0 | 1.5 / 1.0 | 3.4 / 4.0 | 4.0 / 1.0 | 59 / 47 |
| Robert Hansen Jr | INT | 10.3 / - | 0.5 / - | 2.9 / - | 2.1 / - | 48 / - |
| Toby Pink | BPL | 10.0 / 15.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.4 / 7.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 44 / 65 |
| Jacob Konstanty | HFFR | 9.7 / 6.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 2.2 / 1.0 | 3.2 / 2.0 | 48 / 23 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 9.5 / 5.0 | 0.7 / 1.0 | 3.2 / 0.0 | 1.8 / 2.0 | 46 / 23 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 9.2 / 12.0 | 1.1 / 1.0 | 3.4 / 7.0 | 2.2 / 4.0 | 53 / 74 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 9.2 / 7.0 | 2.4 / 4.0 | 5.1 / 2.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 59 / 52 |
| Callum Coleman-Jones | INT | 8.6 / - | 0.4 / - | 2.8 / - | 1.8 / - | 49 / - |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 7.5 / 9.0 | 1.1 / 3.0 | 2.7 / 4.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 42 / 62 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 26.8 / 23.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.4 / 0.0 | 4.4 / 7.0 | 93 / 92 |
| Connor Rozee | C | 25.7 / 24.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 4.4 / 7.0 | 4.0 / 3.0 | 95 / 89 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 21.7 / 17.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.9 / 6.0 | 2.7 / 1.0 | 83 / 64 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | HFFL | 21.0 / 12.0 | 1.1 / 0.0 | 4.4 / 2.0 | 2.6 / 3.0 | 83 / 50 |
| Willem Drew | R | 19.1 / 21.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 2.4 / 2.0 | 5.9 / 4.0 | 75 / 78 |
| Miles Bergman | HBFL | 18.5 / 12.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 4.0 / 3.0 | 4.3 / 2.0 | 78 / 52 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WL | 17.4 / 17.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.1 / 5.0 | 2.7 / 3.0 | 69 / 69 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | INT | 16.3 / 13.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 0.0 | 2.2 / 3.0 | 66 / 45 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 16.3 / 10.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 5.0 | 2.2 / 2.0 | 66 / 47 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 15.6 / 16.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.4 / 3.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 60 / 54 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 15.2 / 13.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.4 / 4.0 | 2.4 / 1.0 | 54 / 45 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 14.4 / 7.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 3.4 / 2.0 | 2.6 / 5.0 | 59 / 53 |
| Jordon Sweet | INT | 13.8 / - | 0.3 / - | 2.2 / - | 3.7 / - | 84 / - |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 13.6 / 14.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 3.0 / 6.0 | 3.2 / 2.0 | 56 / 62 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 13.5 / - | 0.1 / - | 2.6 / - | 2.9 / - | 52 / - |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 13.3 / 15.0 | -0.0 / 0.0 | 5.9 / 5.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 59 / 55 |
| Lachie Jones | BPL | 12.0 / 9.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 3.0 / 6.0 | 2.1 / 1.0 | 48 / 46 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 11.9 / 11.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 52 / 39 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 11.4 / 8.0 | 2.3 / 3.0 | 4.9 / 3.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 61 / 49 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 11.3 / 7.0 | 0.9 / 2.0 | 3.0 / 5.0 | 2.1 / 1.0 | 52 / 53 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 11.0 / 8.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.4 / 3.0 | 1.8 / 0.0 | 50 / 26 |
| Jack Lukosius | INT | 10.4 / - | 1.2 / - | 4.0 / - | 1.9 / - | 54 / - |
| Todd Marshall | BPR | 9.7 / 14.0 | 1.3 / 0.0 | 4.2 / 3.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 55 / 43 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 8.4 / 3.0 | 0.7 / 2.0 | 2.8 / 1.0 | 2.1 / 2.0 | 44 / 31 |
| Ollie Lord | INT | 7.6 / 7.0 | 0.7 / 0.0 | 2.7 / 1.0 | 1.8 / 2.0 | 41 / 38 |
| Dante Visentini | RK | 7.5 / 6.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 2.1 / 1.0 | 2.9 / 6.0 | 53 / 68 |