AFL · ROUND 1 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Port Adelaide
Sun 15 Mar 2026, 1:10pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 6
PA to win, 57% chance
NM 43%57% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 46
MISS Actual margin 46 · 51.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 30.5 | - | - | 100% | 98% | 86% | 56% | 23% | 31.0 |
| Colby McKercher | INT | 27.2 | - | - | 100% | 94% | 69% | 32% | 9% | 11.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 26.8 | - | - | 100% | 93% | 66% | 29% | 7% | 24.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 25.0 | - | - | 99% | 87% | 53% | 18% | 3% | 23.0 |
| Luke Parker | INT | 22.2 | - | - | 96% | 71% | 30% | 6% | 1% | 24.0 |
| Tom Powell | C | 21.4 | - | - | 94% | 65% | 25% | 5% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 20.8 | - | - | 92% | 60% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 17.0 | - | - | 72% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 29.0 |
| Lachy Dovaston | FPR | 16.6 | - | - | 68% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFR | 16.6 | - | - | 68% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 16.4 | - | - | 67% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 16.3 | - | - | 66% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HBFL | 16.2 | - | - | 65% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 12.3 | - | - | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 12.1 | - | - | 24% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 11.8 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 11.6 | - | - | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 11.1 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Robert Hansen Jr | INT | 10.3 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Toby Pink | BPL | 10.0 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | HFFR | 9.7 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 9.5 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 9.2 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 9.2 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Callum Coleman-Jones | INT | 8.6 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 7.5 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zak Butters | RR | 26.8 | - | - | 100% | 93% | 66% | 30% | 7% | 23.0 |
| Connor Rozee | C | 25.7 | - | - | 99% | 89% | 58% | 22% | 5% | 24.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 21.7 | - | - | 95% | 68% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | HFFL | 21.0 | - | - | 93% | 62% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 19.1 | - | - | 86% | 45% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Miles Bergman | HBFL | 18.5 | - | - | 83% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WL | 17.4 | - | - | 75% | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | INT | 16.3 | - | - | 66% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 16.3 | - | - | 66% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 15.6 | - | - | 60% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 15.2 | - | - | 55% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 14.4 | - | - | 47% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | INT | 13.8 | - | - | 41% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 13.6 | - | - | 39% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 13.5 | - | - | 38% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 13.3 | - | - | 36% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Lachie Jones | BPL | 12.0 | - | - | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 11.9 | - | - | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 11.4 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 11.3 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 11.0 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Jack Lukosius | INT | 10.4 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Todd Marshall | BPR | 9.7 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 8.4 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Ollie Lord | INT | 7.6 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Dante Visentini | RK | 7.5 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |