AFL · ROUND 1 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Port Adelaide
Sun 15 Mar 2026, 1:10pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 6
PA to win, 57% chance
NM 43%57% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 46
MISS Actual margin 46 · 51.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 110 | - | - | 97% | 92% | 83% | 68% | 50% | 118 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 101 | - | - | 93% | 84% | 69% | 51% | 33% | 96 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 97 | - | - | 90% | 79% | 63% | 44% | 27% | 94 |
| Colby McKercher | INT | 94 | - | - | 87% | 75% | 58% | 39% | 23% | 40 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 87 | - | - | 79% | 64% | 45% | 27% | 14% | 81 |
| Luke Parker | INT | 87 | - | - | 78% | 62% | 44% | 26% | 14% | 100 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 83 | - | - | 73% | 56% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 71 |
| Tom Powell | C | 81 | - | - | 70% | 52% | 33% | 18% | 8% | 70 |
| Lachy Dovaston | FPR | 68 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 56 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFR | 68 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 77 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 67 | - | - | 44% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 79 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 66 | - | - | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 71 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HBFL | 64 | - | - | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 67 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 62 | - | - | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 135 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 59 | - | - | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 52 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 59 | - | - | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 47 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 53 | - | - | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 74 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 52 | - | - | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 55 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 51 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 94 |
| Callum Coleman-Jones | INT | 49 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Jacob Konstanty | HFFR | 48 | - | - | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 23 |
| Robert Hansen Jr | INT | 48 | - | - | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Zac Banch | INT | 47 | - | - | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 46 | - | - | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 23 |
| Toby Pink | BPL | 44 | - | - | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 65 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 42 | - | - | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 62 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Rozee | C | 95 | - | - | 88% | 75% | 58% | 40% | 23% | 89 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 93 | - | - | 86% | 73% | 56% | 37% | 21% | 92 |
| Jordon Sweet | INT | 84 | - | - | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | - |
| Jason Horne-Francis | HFFL | 83 | - | - | 73% | 56% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 50 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 83 | - | - | 73% | 55% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 64 |
| Miles Bergman | HBFL | 78 | - | - | 64% | 46% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 52 |
| Willem Drew | R | 75 | - | - | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 78 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WL | 69 | - | - | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 69 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | INT | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 45 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 47 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 61 | - | - | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 49 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 60 | - | - | 32% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 54 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 59 | - | - | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 55 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 59 | - | - | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 53 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 56 | - | - | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 62 |
| Todd Marshall | BPR | 55 | - | - | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 43 |
| Jack Lukosius | INT | 54 | - | - | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 54 | - | - | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 45 |
| Dante Visentini | RK | 53 | - | - | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 68 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 52 | - | - | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 53 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 52 | - | - | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 52 | - | - | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 39 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 50 | - | - | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 26 |
| Lachie Jones | BPL | 48 | - | - | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 46 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 44 | - | - | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 31 |
| Ollie Lord | INT | 41 | - | - | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 38 |