AFL · ROUND 1 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Port Adelaide
Sun 15 Mar 2026, 1:10pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 6
PA to win, 57% chance
NM 43%57% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 46
MISS Actual margin 46 · 51.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Larkey | FF | 2.4 | - | - | 91% | 69% | 43% | 22% | 10% | 4.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 2.1 | - | - | 88% | 62% | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 1.5 | - | - | 77% | 43% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.1 | - | - | 68% | 31% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 1.1 | - | - | 67% | 31% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Lachy Dovaston | FPR | 0.9 | - | - | 61% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFR | 0.9 | - | - | 61% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | HFFR | 0.7 | - | - | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 0.7 | - | - | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 0.5 | - | - | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 0.5 | - | - | 40% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Luke Parker | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Robert Hansen Jr | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 40% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Zac Banch | INT | 0.5 | - | - | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Callum Coleman-Jones | INT | 0.4 | - | - | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 0.4 | - | - | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Colby McKercher | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Tom Powell | C | 0.3 | - | - | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 0.2 | - | - | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HBFL | 0.2 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 0.2 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 0.1 | - | - | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 0.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Toby Pink | BPL | 0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 2.3 | - | - | 90% | 68% | 41% | 21% | 9% | 3.0 |
| Todd Marshall | BPR | 1.3 | - | - | 71% | 36% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Jack Lukosius | INT | 1.2 | - | - | 70% | 34% | 12% | 4% | 1% | - |
| Jason Horne-Francis | HFFL | 1.1 | - | - | 66% | 30% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 59% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 60% | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 0.9 | - | - | 60% | 23% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 0.7 | - | - | 52% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 0.7 | - | - | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 0.7 | - | - | 52% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ollie Lord | INT | 0.7 | - | - | 52% | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Dante Visentini | RK | 0.6 | - | - | 45% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 0.4 | - | - | 30% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Connor Rozee | C | 0.3 | - | - | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | INT | 0.3 | - | - | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Miles Bergman | HBFL | 0.3 | - | - | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 0.3 | - | - | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 0.3 | - | - | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 0.1 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WL | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 0.1 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Logan Evans | INT | 0.1 | - | - | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | -0.0 | - | - | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Lachie Jones | BPL | 0.0 | - | - | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0 |