AFL · ROUND 1 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Port Adelaide
Sun 15 Mar 2026, 1:10pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 6
PA to win, 57% chance
NM 43%57% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 46
MISS Actual margin 46 · 51.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 5.8 | - | - | 93% | 83% | 69% | 53% | 37% | 10.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | RR | 4.6 | - | - | 83% | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | 5.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 4.5 | - | - | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 17% | 5.0 |
| Luke Parker | INT | 4.2 | - | - | 78% | 60% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 2.0 |
| Paul Curtis | HFFL | 4.0 | - | - | 76% | 56% | 37% | 21% | 11% | 1.0 |
| Tom Powell | C | 4.0 | - | - | 77% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | 1.0 |
| Jacob Konstanty | HFFR | 3.2 | - | - | 63% | 41% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | WL | 2.9 | - | - | 56% | 34% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 3.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Jack Darling | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Lachy Dovaston | FPR | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Tom Blamires | HBFR | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | HBFL | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Robert Hansen Jr | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 31% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Colby McKercher | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 1.9 | - | - | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Luke McDonald | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Callum Coleman-Jones | INT | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Griffin Logue | FB | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Zane Duursma | INT | 1.8 | - | - | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Charlie Comben | BPR | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Toby Pink | BPL | 1.7 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem Drew | R | 5.9 | - | - | 93% | 84% | 70% | 54% | 38% | 4.0 |
| Zak Butters | RR | 4.4 | - | - | 81% | 64% | 44% | 28% | 15% | 7.0 |
| Miles Bergman | HBFL | 4.3 | - | - | 80% | 62% | 43% | 26% | 14% | 2.0 |
| Connor Rozee | C | 4.0 | - | - | 76% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 3.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | INT | 3.7 | - | - | 71% | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | - |
| Joe Richards | FPR | 3.2 | - | - | 62% | 40% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2.0 |
| Dante Visentini | RK | 2.9 | - | - | 55% | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 6.0 |
| Jackson Mead | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 56% | 34% | 17% | 8% | 3% | - |
| Jase Burgoyne | WL | 2.7 | - | - | 50% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Kane Farrell | HBFR | 2.7 | - | - | 52% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | FPL | 2.6 | - | - | 48% | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 5.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | HFFL | 2.6 | - | - | 48% | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WR | 2.4 | - | - | 42% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Ewan Mackinlay | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Jack Watkins | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Corey Durdin | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 2.1 | - | - | 36% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Lachie Jones | BPL | 2.1 | - | - | 36% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Jack Lukosius | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Logan Evans | INT | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Esava Ratugolea | FB | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Ollie Lord | INT | 1.8 | - | - | 28% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | CHF | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Todd Marshall | BPR | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |