AFL · ROUND 1 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions
Sat 14 Mar 2026, 7:10pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 6
SYD to win, 58% chance
SYD 58%42% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 44
HIT Actual margin 44 · 37.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden | RR | 26.3 | - | - | 99% | 91% | 63% | 26% | 6% | 20.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 23.0 | - | - | 97% | 76% | 37% | 9% | 1% | 22.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 22.4 | - | - | 96% | 72% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 15.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | FPR | 21.5 | - | - | 94% | 66% | 25% | 5% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 20.7 | - | - | 92% | 59% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 25.0 |
| Justin McInerney | C | 20.2 | - | - | 90% | 54% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | INT | 20.1 | - | - | 90% | 54% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 19.0 | - | - | 85% | 44% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 18.5 | - | - | 82% | 39% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 17.3 | - | - | 74% | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 25.0 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 16.8 | - | - | 70% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| James Jordon | INT | 16.2 | - | - | 65% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 14.7 | - | - | 50% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 27.0 |
| Tom Papley | HFFR | 14.7 | - | - | 50% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| James Rowbottom | CHF | 14.5 | - | - | 48% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 13.9 | - | - | 42% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Riley Bice | WL | 13.3 | - | - | 36% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 28.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 11.9 | - | - | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Jai Serong | HBFR | 10.9 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 10.6 | - | - | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Lewis Melican | HBFL | 10.3 | - | - | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFL | 10.2 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 9.1 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 28.2 | - | - | 100% | 96% | 75% | 39% | 12% | 28.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 26.8 | - | - | 100% | 93% | 66% | 30% | 7% | 30.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 26.8 | - | - | 100% | 92% | 66% | 29% | 7% | 21.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 22.2 | - | - | 96% | 71% | 30% | 6% | 1% | 22.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 21.3 | - | - | 94% | 64% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 20.8 | - | - | 92% | 60% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 24.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WR | 19.9 | - | - | 89% | 52% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 17.6 | - | - | 76% | 31% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 17.4 | - | - | 75% | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Daniel Annable | INT | 16.1 | - | - | 65% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Zane Zakostelsky | FB | 16.1 | - | - | 65% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 14.3 | - | - | 46% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 14.0 | - | - | 43% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Noah Answerth | INT | 13.8 | - | - | 41% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 12.8 | - | - | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | INT | 12.3 | - | - | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 12.1 | - | - | 24% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 11.5 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 |
| Bruce Reville | WL | 11.4 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 10.4 | - | - | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 10.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Ty Gallop | FPR | 9.0 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Oscar Allen | CHF | 8.9 | - | - | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |