Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions

Sat 14 Mar 2026, 7:10pm AEDT (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIPNEW MODEL

SYD by 6

SYD to win, 58% chance

SYD 58%42% BRI

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

SYD by 44

HIT Actual margin 44 · 37.8 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Sydney Swans

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	70+	80+	90+	100+	110+	ACTUAL
Brodie Grundy	RK	100	-	-	92%	82%	67%	49%	31%	51
Errol Gulden	RR	100	-	-	92%	82%	67%	49%	31%	101
Isaac Heeney	FPR	88	-	-	80%	64%	46%	28%	15%	65
Callum Mills	BPL	87	-	-	79%	63%	44%	27%	14%	79
Chad Warner	R	84	-	-	75%	58%	39%	22%	11%	39
Nick Blakey	CHB	82	-	-	72%	54%	36%	20%	9%	90
Jake Lloyd	INT	81	-	-	70%	52%	34%	19%	9%	40
Justin McInerney	C	78	-	-	64%	46%	28%	14%	6%	84
Matt Roberts	WR	72	-	-	54%	36%	20%	9%	4%	84
Tom Papley	HFFR	72	-	-	53%	34%	19%	9%	4%	65
Angus Sheldrick	INT	69	-	-	47%	29%	16%	7%	2%	87
James Jordon	INT	69	-	-	48%	30%	16%	7%	3%	32
James Rowbottom	CHF	69	-	-	47%	29%	16%	7%	2%	87
Sam Wicks	INT	67	-	-	44%	27%	14%	6%	2%	39
Charlie Curnow	FF	65	-	-	41%	24%	12%	5%	2%	59
Tom McCartin	FB	59	-	-	31%	16%	7%	3%	1%	90
Logan McDonald	INT	58	-	-	29%	15%	7%	2%	1%	66
Dane Rampe	BPR	57	-	-	27%	14%	6%	2%	1%	53
Joel Amartey	FPL	51	-	-	18%	8%	3%	1%	0%	100
Malcolm Rosas	HFFL	51	-	-	18%	8%	3%	1%	0%	35
Riley Bice	WL	51	-	-	19%	9%	3%	1%	0%	103
Jai Serong	HBFR	44	-	-	11%	4%	2%	0%	0%	59
Lewis Melican	HBFL	43	-	-	10%	4%	1%	0%	0%	46

Brisbane Lions

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	70+	80+	90+	100+	110+	ACTUAL
Dayne Zorko	HBFR	101	-	-	93%	84%	70%	52%	33%	121
Will Ashcroft	C	96	-	-	89%	78%	62%	43%	26%	67
Lachie Neale	R	94	-	-	88%	75%	58%	40%	23%	83
Josh Dunkley	RR	93	-	-	86%	73%	56%	37%	21%	108
Sam Draper	FPL	84	-	-	74%	57%	38%	22%	11%	41
Jaspa Fletcher	CHB	81	-	-	71%	53%	34%	19%	9%	77
Darcy Wilmot	HBFL	79	-	-	66%	48%	30%	16%	7%	103
Darcy Fort	RK	78	-	-	64%	46%	28%	14%	6%	82
Jarrod Berry	WR	76	-	-	62%	43%	26%	13%	6%	49
Keidean Coleman	BPL	71	-	-	52%	33%	18%	8%	3%	58
Daniel Annable	INT	66	-	-	42%	25%	12%	5%	2%	53
Zane Zakostelsky	FB	66	-	-	42%	25%	12%	5%	2%	49
Cam Rayner	FF	65	-	-	42%	25%	12%	5%	2%	74
Levi Ashcroft	HFFR	65	-	-	41%	24%	12%	5%	2%	74
Lincoln McCarthy	INT	61	-	-	33%	18%	8%	3%	1%	36
Noah Answerth	INT	58	-	-	28%	15%	6%	2%	1%	50
Kai Lohmann	INT	56	-	-	25%	12%	5%	2%	0%	34
Ryan Lester	BPR	55	-	-	23%	12%	5%	2%	0%	42
Charlie Cameron	HFFL	53	-	-	21%	10%	4%	1%	0%	72
James Tunstill	INT	49	-	-	17%	7%	3%	1%	0%	66
Bruce Reville	WL	47	-	-	14%	6%	2%	1%	0%	65
Ty Gallop	FPR	46	-	-	12%	5%	2%	0%	0%	16
Oscar Allen	CHF	45	-	-	12%	5%	2%	0%	0%	19