Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions

Sat 14 Mar 2026, 7:10pm AEDT (venue time)

FINAL HIT

OUR TIPNEW MODEL

SYD by 6

SYD to win, 58% chance

SYD 58%42% BRI

BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

SYD by 44

HIT Actual margin 44 · 37.8 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 29 Mar 2026

Player predictions

Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Sydney Swans

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	1+	2+	3+	4+	5+	ACTUAL
Charlie Curnow	FF	1.9	-	-	85%	56%	29%	12%	4%	0.0
Joel Amartey	FPL	1.8	-	-	83%	53%	26%	10%	3%	5.0
Tom Papley	HFFR	1.8	-	-	84%	54%	28%	11%	4%	0.0
Isaac Heeney	FPR	1.6	-	-	80%	47%	22%	8%	2%	2.0
Logan McDonald	INT	1.3	-	-	73%	38%	15%	4%	1%	2.0
Malcolm Rosas	HFFL	1.3	-	-	72%	36%	13%	4%	1%	1.0
Chad Warner	R	0.6	-	-	46%	12%	2%	0%	0%	0.0
James Jordon	INT	0.6	-	-	43%	11%	2%	0%	0%	0.0
James Rowbottom	CHF	0.6	-	-	45%	12%	2%	0%	0%	0.0
Angus Sheldrick	INT	0.5	-	-	39%	9%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Justin McInerney	C	0.5	-	-	39%	9%	1%	0%	0%	2.0
Brodie Grundy	RK	0.4	-	-	35%	7%	1%	0%	0%	1.0
Errol Gulden	RR	0.4	-	-	34%	7%	1%	0%	0%	1.0
Jake Lloyd	INT	0.4	-	-	33%	6%	1%	0%	0%	0.0
Nick Blakey	CHB	0.3	-	-	29%	5%	0%	0%	0%	1.0
Matt Roberts	WR	0.2	-	-	14%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Sam Wicks	INT	0.2	-	-	17%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Callum Mills	BPL	0.1	-	-	10%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Jai Serong	HBFR	0.1	-	-	6%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Riley Bice	WL	0.1	-	-	14%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Dane Rampe	BPR	0.0	-	-	5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Lewis Melican	HBFL	0.0	-	-	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Tom McCartin	FB	0.0	-	-	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0

Brisbane Lions

NO LINEUP

PLAYER	POS	PREDICTED	50% RANGE	90% RANGE	1+	2+	3+	4+	5+	ACTUAL
Charlie Cameron	HFFL	1.5	-	-	77%	43%	18%	6%	2%	2.0
Cam Rayner	FF	1.4	-	-	75%	41%	17%	5%	1%	1.0
Kai Lohmann	INT	1.3	-	-	74%	39%	15%	5%	1%	1.0
Lincoln McCarthy	INT	1.3	-	-	74%	38%	15%	5%	1%	0.0
Oscar Allen	CHF	1.2	-	-	69%	33%	12%	3%	1%	1.0
Sam Draper	FPL	1.2	-	-	68%	32%	11%	3%	1%	0.0
Daniel Annable	INT	0.9	-	-	60%	23%	7%	1%	0%	0.0
Zane Zakostelsky	FB	0.9	-	-	60%	23%	7%	1%	0%	0.0
Ty Gallop	FPR	0.8	-	-	56%	20%	5%	1%	0%	0.0
Will Ashcroft	C	0.6	-	-	46%	13%	2%	0%	0%	0.0
James Tunstill	INT	0.4	-	-	34%	7%	1%	0%	0%	1.0
Jarrod Berry	WR	0.3	-	-	29%	5%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Josh Dunkley	RR	0.3	-	-	28%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Lachie Neale	R	0.3	-	-	28%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Levi Ashcroft	HFFR	0.3	-	-	26%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Bruce Reville	WL	0.2	-	-	22%	3%	0%	0%	0%	2.0
Darcy Fort	RK	0.2	-	-	16%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Keidean Coleman	BPL	0.2	-	-	15%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Darcy Wilmot	HBFL	0.1	-	-	10%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Dayne Zorko	HBFR	0.1	-	-	13%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Jaspa Fletcher	CHB	0.1	-	-	10%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Noah Answerth	INT	0.0	-	-	3%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0
Ryan Lester	BPR	0.0	-	-	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.0