AFL · ROUND 1 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions
Sat 14 Mar 2026, 7:10pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 6
SYD to win, 58% chance
SYD 58%42% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 44
HIT Actual margin 44 · 37.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden | RR | 26.3 / 20.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 5.1 / 6.0 | 3.8 / 8.0 | 100 / 101 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 23.0 / 22.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 6.1 / 6.0 | 2.3 / 2.0 | 87 / 79 |
| Chad Warner | R | 22.4 / 15.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 1.0 | 3.9 / 0.0 | 84 / 39 |
| Isaac Heeney | FPR | 21.5 / 16.0 | 1.6 / 2.0 | 4.2 / 3.0 | 3.6 / 1.0 | 88 / 65 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 20.7 / 25.0 | 0.3 / 1.0 | 6.0 / 6.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 82 / 90 |
| Justin McInerney | C | 20.2 / 23.0 | 0.5 / 2.0 | 5.0 / 5.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 | 78 / 84 |
| Jake Lloyd | INT | 20.1 / 8.0 | 0.4 / 0.0 | 6.5 / 4.0 | 2.1 / 2.0 | 81 / 40 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 19.0 / 20.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 5.4 / 5.0 | 2.4 / 4.0 | 72 / 84 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 18.5 / 9.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 3.8 / 1.0 | 3.2 / 1.0 | 100 / 51 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 17.3 / 25.0 | 0.5 / 0.0 | 3.0 / 5.0 | 3.3 / 3.0 | 69 / 87 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 16.8 / 10.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 0.0 | 2.3 / 5.0 | 67 / 39 |
| James Jordon | INT | 16.2 / 9.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 2.9 / 2.0 | 3.3 / 1.0 | 69 / 32 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 14.7 / 27.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 6.1 / 8.0 | 1.7 / 0.0 | 59 / 90 |
| Tom Papley | HFFR | 14.7 / 18.0 | 1.8 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 4.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 | 72 / 65 |
| James Rowbottom | CHF | 14.5 / 21.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 3.2 / 2.0 | 5.4 / 7.0 | 69 / 87 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 13.9 / 15.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.0 / 1.0 | 1.9 / 3.0 | 57 / 53 |
| Riley Bice | WL | 13.3 / 28.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 4.2 / 6.0 | 2.1 / 4.0 | 51 / 103 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 11.9 / 13.0 | 1.9 / 0.0 | 5.8 / 6.0 | 1.8 / 2.0 | 65 / 59 |
| Jai Serong | HBFR | 10.9 / 18.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 3.0 / 3.0 | 2.2 / 1.0 | 44 / 59 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 10.6 / 12.0 | 1.3 / 2.0 | 5.0 / 5.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 | 58 / 66 |
| Lewis Melican | HBFL | 10.3 / 11.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 3.9 / 4.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 43 / 46 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFL | 10.2 / 8.0 | 1.3 / 1.0 | 2.6 / 1.0 | 2.1 / 1.0 | 51 / 35 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 9.1 / 13.0 | 1.8 / 5.0 | 3.9 / 8.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 | 51 / 100 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 28.2 / 28.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 4.1 / 3.0 | 3.9 / 2.0 | 94 / 83 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 26.8 / 30.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 6.2 / 11.0 | 2.9 / 1.0 | 101 / 121 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 26.8 / 21.0 | 0.6 / 0.0 | 4.3 / 2.0 | 3.8 / 2.0 | 96 / 67 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 22.2 / 22.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 4.1 / 5.0 | 5.9 / 9.0 | 93 / 108 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 21.3 / 18.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 6.1 / 5.0 | 2.2 / 4.0 | 81 / 77 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 20.8 / 24.0 | 0.1 / 0.0 | 5.7 / 8.0 | 2.1 / 2.0 | 79 / 103 |
| Jarrod Berry | WR | 19.9 / 12.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 4.9 / 2.0 | 2.8 / 3.0 | 76 / 49 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 17.6 / 18.0 | 0.3 / 0.0 | 3.8 / 6.0 | 2.4 / 1.0 | 65 / 74 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 17.4 / 16.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 5.9 / 6.0 | 2.5 / 0.0 | 71 / 58 |
| Daniel Annable | INT | 16.1 / 13.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 4.0 | 2.2 / 1.0 | 66 / 53 |
| Zane Zakostelsky | FB | 16.1 / 12.0 | 0.9 / 0.0 | 3.5 / 6.0 | 2.2 / 0.0 | 66 / 49 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 14.3 / 16.0 | 1.4 / 1.0 | 3.1 / 6.0 | 3.4 / 1.0 | 65 / 74 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 14.0 / 8.0 | 1.2 / 0.0 | 3.7 / 3.0 | 2.4 / 1.0 | 84 / 41 |
| Noah Answerth | INT | 13.8 / 10.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 4.9 / 4.0 | 2.4 / 4.0 | 58 / 50 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 12.8 / 11.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 | 5.7 / 4.0 | 1.9 / 1.0 | 55 / 42 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | INT | 12.3 / 11.0 | 1.3 / 0.0 | 3.4 / 2.0 | 2.9 / 2.0 | 61 / 36 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 12.1 / 16.0 | 0.4 / 1.0 | 3.3 / 7.0 | 2.0 / 0.0 | 49 / 66 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 11.5 / 8.0 | 1.3 / 1.0 | 3.1 / 2.0 | 2.9 / 2.0 | 56 / 34 |
| Bruce Reville | WL | 11.4 / 13.0 | 0.2 / 2.0 | 3.1 / 3.0 | 1.9 / 2.0 | 47 / 65 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 10.4 / 18.0 | 0.2 / 0.0 | 1.9 / 4.0 | 3.7 / 2.0 | 78 / 82 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 10.1 / 12.0 | 1.5 / 2.0 | 3.3 / 5.0 | 2.3 / 3.0 | 53 / 72 |
| Ty Gallop | FPR | 9.0 / 3.0 | 0.8 / 0.0 | 2.9 / 0.0 | 2.2 / 2.0 | 46 / 16 |
| Oscar Allen | CHF | 8.9 / 5.0 | 1.2 / 1.0 | 3.3 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 0.0 | 45 / 19 |