AFL · ROUND 1 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions
Sat 14 Mar 2026, 7:10pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 6
SYD to win, 58% chance
SYD 58%42% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 44
HIT Actual margin 44 · 37.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Rowbottom | CHF | 5.4 | - | - | 91% | 79% | 63% | 46% | 30% | 7.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 3.9 | - | - | 75% | 55% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 0.0 |
| Errol Gulden | RR | 3.8 | - | - | 74% | 53% | 34% | 19% | 9% | 8.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | FPR | 3.6 | - | - | 70% | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | 1.0 |
| Angus Sheldrick | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 65% | 43% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 3.0 |
| James Jordon | INT | 3.3 | - | - | 64% | 42% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 1.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 3.2 | - | - | 62% | 40% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 1.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WR | 2.4 | - | - | 42% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 2.3 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 2.3 | - | - | 41% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 5.0 |
| Jai Serong | HBFR | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | INT | 2.1 | - | - | 36% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Malcolm Rosas | HFFL | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Riley Bice | WL | 2.1 | - | - | 34% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 4.0 |
| Joel Amartey | FPL | 2.0 | - | - | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Justin McInerney | C | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 1.9 | - | - | 28% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 |
| Lewis Melican | HBFL | 1.9 | - | - | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 1.8 | - | - | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Tom Papley | HFFR | 1.8 | - | - | 27% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Logan McDonald | INT | 1.7 | - | - | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Nick Blakey | CHB | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 1.7 | - | - | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 5.9 | - | - | 93% | 84% | 70% | 54% | 38% | 9.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 3.9 | - | - | 74% | 54% | 35% | 20% | 10% | 2.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | C | 3.8 | - | - | 74% | 54% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 2.0 |
| Darcy Fort | RK | 3.7 | - | - | 71% | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 2.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 3.4 | - | - | 65% | 43% | 25% | 12% | 6% | 1.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 2.9 | - | - | 55% | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 56% | 34% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Lincoln McCarthy | INT | 2.9 | - | - | 56% | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WR | 2.8 | - | - | 54% | 31% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 3.0 |
| Keidean Coleman | BPL | 2.5 | - | - | 44% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | HFFR | 2.4 | - | - | 44% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Noah Answerth | INT | 2.4 | - | - | 43% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Sam Draper | FPL | 2.4 | - | - | 43% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 2.3 | - | - | 40% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 3.0 |
| Daniel Annable | INT | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | CHB | 2.2 | - | - | 38% | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 4.0 |
| Ty Gallop | FPR | 2.2 | - | - | 37% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| Zane Zakostelsky | FB | 2.2 | - | - | 39% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 2.1 | - | - | 36% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 2.0 |
| James Tunstill | INT | 2.0 | - | - | 33% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Oscar Allen | CHF | 2.0 | - | - | 32% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0.0 |
| Bruce Reville | WL | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 2.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 1.9 | - | - | 30% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 1.0 |