AFL · ROUND 1 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v GWS GIANTS
Sat 14 Mar 2026, 1:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 14
WB to win, 67% chance
WB 67%33% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 81
HIT Actual margin 81 · 67.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 25.5 | - | - | 99% | 88% | 56% | 21% | 4% | 23.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 25.3 | - | - | 99% | 88% | 55% | 20% | 4% | 33.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 24.6 | - | - | 98% | 85% | 50% | 16% | 3% | 19.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | FPR | 23.8 | - | - | 98% | 81% | 43% | 12% | 2% | 29.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 21.9 | - | - | 95% | 68% | 28% | 6% | 1% | 27.0 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 19.3 | - | - | 86% | 47% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | INT | 18.4 | - | - | 82% | 38% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 18.2 | - | - | 80% | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 17.0 | - | - | 72% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 22.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 16.6 | - | - | 68% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 16.6 | - | - | 68% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 |
| Joel Freijah | HFFR | 15.5 | - | - | 59% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Oskar Baker | INT | 15.3 | - | - | 57% | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Sam Davidson | WL | 15.0 | - | - | 54% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 11.0 |
| Sam Darcy | CHF | 13.7 | - | - | 40% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 12.7 | - | - | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 11.7 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Rory Lobb | BPR | 11.7 | - | - | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Rhylee West | HFFL | 11.5 | - | - | 18% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 11.3 | - | - | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | BPL | 10.1 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 29.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 9.9 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 8.7 | - | - | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Callaghan | R | 27.8 | - | - | 100% | 95% | 73% | 36% | 10% | 27.0 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 27.6 | - | - | 100% | 94% | 71% | 35% | 10% | 25.0 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFL | 26.1 | - | - | 99% | 91% | 61% | 25% | 6% | 31.0 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 25.7 | - | - | 99% | 89% | 58% | 22% | 5% | 26.0 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFR | 18.1 | - | - | 80% | 36% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 17.4 | - | - | 75% | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 17.1 | - | - | 73% | 27% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 16.3 | - | - | 66% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Max Gruzewski | FPR | 16.3 | - | - | 66% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Ryan Angwin | WR | 16.2 | - | - | 65% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 15.0 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 15.8 | - | - | 61% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 23.0 |
| Harvey Thomas | WL | 15.1 | - | - | 55% | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 21.0 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 14.5 | - | - | 49% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 14.5 | - | - | 48% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 26.0 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 12.8 | - | - | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 12.7 | - | - | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| Jack Buckley | FB | 12.2 | - | - | 24% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16.0 |
| Jake Riccardi | CHF | 11.8 | - | - | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 11.1 | - | - | 16% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 10.9 | - | - | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 |
| Josaia Delana | INT | 10.2 | - | - | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFL | 10.0 | - | - | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.0 |
| Jesse Hogan | FF | 9.2 | - | - | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10.0 |