AFL · ROUND 1 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v GWS GIANTS
Sat 14 Mar 2026, 1:15pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 14
WB to win, 67% chance
WB 67%33% GWS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 81
HIT Actual margin 81 · 67.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
29 Mar 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 103 | - | - | 94% | 86% | 73% | 56% | 37% | 135 |
| Tim English | RK | 103 | - | - | 94% | 87% | 74% | 56% | 38% | 121 |
| Ed Richards | R | 92 | - | - | 85% | 71% | 53% | 35% | 19% | 83 |
| Bailey Dale | HBFR | 91 | - | - | 84% | 69% | 51% | 33% | 18% | 75 |
| Tom Liberatore | FPR | 90 | - | - | 82% | 67% | 49% | 31% | 17% | 122 |
| Matthew Kennedy | RR | 85 | - | - | 76% | 60% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 110 |
| Bailey Williams | WR | 72 | - | - | 54% | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 76 |
| Sam Darcy | CHF | 69 | - | - | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 86 |
| Michael Sellwood | INT | 68 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 39 |
| Will Lewis | FPL | 68 | - | - | 47% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 22 |
| Joel Freijah | HFFR | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 77 |
| Lachlan Bramble | INT | 66 | - | - | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 56 |
| Ryley Sanders | INT | 66 | - | - | 43% | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 48 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 65 | - | - | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 123 |
| Oskar Baker | INT | 63 | - | - | 37% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 58 |
| Sam Davidson | WL | 62 | - | - | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 60 |
| Rhylee West | HFFL | 58 | - | - | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 44 |
| Connor Budarick | HBFL | 49 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 86 |
| Rory Lobb | BPR | 49 | - | - | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 55 |
| Cooper Hynes | INT | 44 | - | - | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 43 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 44 | - | - | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 29 |
| Lachie Jaques | BPL | 44 | - | - | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 112 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 43 | - | - | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 62 |
GWS GIANTS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Callaghan | R | 100 | - | - | 92% | 83% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 109 |
| Lachie Whitfield | CHB | 97 | - | - | 90% | 78% | 62% | 44% | 26% | 92 |
| Clayton Oliver | C | 92 | - | - | 85% | 71% | 54% | 35% | 20% | 79 |
| Lachie Ash | HBFL | 90 | - | - | 83% | 69% | 51% | 32% | 18% | 136 |
| Kieren Briggs | RK | 80 | - | - | 68% | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | 55 |
| Harry Himmelberg | INT | 73 | - | - | 55% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 70 |
| Toby Greene | RR | 69 | - | - | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 92 |
| Xavier O'Halloran | INT | 69 | - | - | 48% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 58 |
| Stephen Coniglio | HFFR | 68 | - | - | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 65 |
| Harry Rowston | INT | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 61 |
| Max Gruzewski | FPR | 66 | - | - | 42% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 34 |
| Jake Riccardi | CHF | 62 | - | - | 36% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 95 |
| Ryan Angwin | WR | 61 | - | - | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 65 |
| Harvey Thomas | WL | 59 | - | - | 31% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 70 |
| Connor Idun | BPR | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 88 |
| Jayden Laverde | BPL | 57 | - | - | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 94 |
| Jesse Hogan | FF | 54 | - | - | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 47 |
| Jake Stringer | FPL | 52 | - | - | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 30 |
| Callum Brown | INT | 51 | - | - | 19% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 43 |
| Jack Buckley | FB | 46 | - | - | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 68 |
| Joe Fonti | HBFR | 46 | - | - | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 84 |
| Josaia Delana | INT | 45 | - | - | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 38 |
| Phoenix Gothard | HFFL | 44 | - | - | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 67 |